Sunday, January 11, 2009

Oil Speculation Vs. Supply/Demand (60 Minutes Video)

Did Speculation Fuel Oil Price Swings?
"About the only economic break most Americans have gotten in the last six months has been the drastic drop in the price of oil, which has fallen even more precipitously than it rose. In a year's time, a commodity that was theoretically priced according to supply and demand doubled from $69 a barrel to nearly $150, and then, in a period of just three months, crashed along with the stock market.

So what happened? It's a complicated question, and there are lots of theories. But as correspondent Steve Kroft reports, many people believe it was a speculative bubble, not unlike the one that caused the housing crisis, and that it had more to do with traders and speculators on Wall Street than with oil company executives or sheiks in Saudi Arabia."



I don't get it. Of course there's going to be speculation. Oil contracts are traded in the pits where risk gets priced in. Don't forget the '06-'08 peak oil talk, Strait of Hormuz tension (Iran), and parabolic China/India demand that contributed to traders hitting the ask button. Plus add in easy money and you get a move to $147! But if there's manipulation going on that's another story...
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