Tuesday, March 3, 2009

$USO, March 25 Calls Made Moves, Trend Still Down but Contango Narrowing...

I saw some action in $USO and the March '09 25 Calls today. I have no idea if these moves were related but thousands of blocks hit the calls at 1:50pm for $1.45 right before a 4% upside move in the ETF. 21,398 Mar 25 calls and 17,294 Mar 24 puts traded by the end of the day. I got this quote from remoratrade.com or @remoratrade on twitter.
"~USO (UBOCY: MAR'09 25.00 CALL) 13:50 (15,204 @$ 1.45) [BID: 1.45 ASK: 1.50 BIDSIZE: 5,092 ASKSIZE: 47] (atBID) VAL: $2,204,580"
The value of the trade was $2.2 million and it looks like they hit the bid. I have no idea how the full trade was set up or if it was playing the long side (17k puts traded) but I'll show you what happened to the value of the calls and USO right after the transaction occurred. Here's part of the order book below.



Once all of these calls traded USO's volume spiked and it increased about 4.3%.



The calls also caught a bid increasing 35% (1.45 to 1.97) but without liquidity of course.

USO March 25 Call (Optionsxpress.com)

It's interesting that everything started at 1:50. Below I posted a long term chart of the USO. The trend is still down and it's up against heavy resistance. Tepid oil demand and bloated inventories could ruin this ETF so hedge. Contango and front month rolls have been ruining this security since monthly spreads were so wide. Big oil traders and institutions have been taking advantage of the spread by storing oil at spot and selling long dated futures to make easy dough (Oil stored at sea may top 80 mln bbls -Frontline). Recently however the front to second month futures curve is starting to narrow (Narrowing contango may spur U.S. oil stock selloff). Price is now in a tug of war between global growth and supply destruction.

USO (Stockcharts.com)




blog comments powered by Disqus