Wachovia- China/US Recovers First, USD Benefits, IMF Economic Update

Hat tip to Francesc's Weblog at Fxstreet.com for providing this. Wachovia expects USD to continue to trend higher. Here's the full pdf from Wachovia Economics, The Global Economy: Who Gets Out of the Gate First.

"The U.S. economy faces some formidable challenges, but it should be one of the first economies to post positive growth numbers again due to the unprecedented stimulus that has been applied."

Also here is the World Economic Outlook report out from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Out of the advanced economies listed below, during 2009 the U.S and Canada are expected to fare out the best with -2.8%, and -2.5% year over year change in output. The 2009 projection for China is +6.5%, India +4.5%, Middle East +2.5% and Africa +2%. They are up but well off highs (2007: China +13.5%, India +9.3% and Middle East +6.3%). So based on Wachovia's note and IMF's output comparables, will currency still flow toward the USD (USDX)? Or will monetary inflation force currencies toward commodities (Copper gains strength on China buying) and commodity currencies (CAN, AUS, BRAZ)? Follow the flows!!! Also keep watching the USDX's monthly uptrend.

IMF World Output Projections (Source: IMF)


Here's the full World Economic Outlook Press Conference on April 22, 2009 (click video or here).


Features:

Olivier Blanchard,
Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department

Charles Collyns,
Deputy Director of IMF`s Research Department

Jorg Decressin,
Chief of the World Economic Studies Division, IMF Research Department