UltraShort Real Estate $SRS Moving, CPPI/TBI Still In Downtrend, GGP LCDS Auction

The market is tanking on some red shoots and the UltraShort Real Estate Index ($SRS) downtrend looks overextended, imho. Tight green shoot stops! It peaked at $111.22 in early March and it's at $24.08 today. Also I just saw blocks of shares, over 295k total in a minute move this thing above $24.50 (2:21p). We'll see if that has any meaning going forward. **UPDATE, May 19, 2009** Can't Fight The Fed!

"The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday announced that, starting in July, certain high-quality commercial mortgage-backed securities issued before January 1, 2009 (legacy CMBS) will become eligible collateral under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)." (FederalReserve.gov)

UltraShort Real Estate (SRS) 6 Month Chart
There's also some interesting news coming out of zerohedge.com regarding the GGP "LCDS Auction" which could reprice "secured obligations" in the commercial real estate market. (GGP LCDS Auction In Process, GGP Inside Market Midpoint 43.25, $20 MM Sell Interest).

I also checked out MIT.edu which has a transaction based commercial real estate index and a MIT/Moody's Commercial Real Estate Index. Here's a snapshot. Remember they are backward looking but still useful.


TBI All Properties Price Index (Source: MIT.edu)
(Transaction Based Index)


Moodys/REAL National Commercial Property Price Index(Source: MIT.edu)

Moodys/REAL Retail CPPI (Quarterly)(Source: MIT.edu)

Also look at the recent rally in Markit's CMBX.NA.AAA.5 Index. It rallied with the overall market from March. Read the second article I provided below for more on this.


CMBX.NA.AAA.5 Index (Markit.com)

Articles of interest:

MIT real estate index continues slide (Boston Business Journal)
CMBS Continues to Rally, But Is It Sustainable? (Another Financial Portal)