Sunday, June 7, 2009

Charts Comparing 1974, 1982, 2002 Market Bottoms To Today, 80s Recovery

Digging into historical charts here. I know nothing repeats itself but I feel bits and pieces do. I am providing charts of market bottoms during the 1973, 1982 and 2002 recessions and comparing them to today. I guess you could say the 1983 bottom and sharp recovery looks similar to the March lows. In early 1982 the SPX double bottomed at 105 and capitulated just below that level which shook out all longs. Was the 666 low in early March capitulation??

From Wikipedia:

"According to Keynesian economists, a combination of deficit spending[citation needed] and the lowering of interest rates slowly led to economic recovery. From a high of 10.8% in December 1982, unemployment gradually improved until it fell to 7.2% on Election Day in 1984.[5] Nearly two million people left the unemployment rolls.[31] Inflation fell from 10.3% in 1981 to 3.2% in 1983.[1][32] Corporate earnings rose by 29% in the July-September quarter of 1983, compared with the same period in 1982. Some of the most dramatic improvements came in industries hardest hit by the recession, such as paper and forest products, rubber, airlines, and the auto industry.[31]"

Use that Wikipedia data with caution. Also I found an article and Reagan's radio address from 1982. "Year Of Economic Recovery in 1982" (Evening Independent January 4, 1982), Reagan Radio Address to the Nation - Program for Economic Recovery (May 1, 1982).

1970s Recession Bottom (Bigcharts.com)

1980s Recession Bottom (Bigcharts.com)

2002 Recession Bottom (Bigcharts.com)

Current Chart - 6/6/2009 (Bigcharts.com)


Here are previous historical posts.

USD Index, CPI and Fed Funds During 80s Recession
SPY 2002 Market Bottom v. May 2009 (Charts)
1973-75 Recession History, Chart, 2009 Comparison?


Reagan Radio Address to the Nation, Program for Economic Recovery

May 1, 1982

My fellow Americans:

This broadcast today is coming from the American Pavilion, the World's Fair that opens in Knoxville, Tennessee, today.

Two nights ago I went on national television asking you to help us get a bipartisan budget passed in this Congress -- not just any budget, but a budget that will hold down your taxes and get spending under control so we can reduce deficits, interest rates, and put unemployed Americans back to work. Let me just say, your calls and telegrams really warmed my heart. You came through with the greatest outpouring of support our administration has ever received, and you let us know that while our program did not in its first 30 weeks solve all the problems that have piled up for more than 30 years, it is beginning to work.

Ernest Key wired us from Georgia: ``Gas in Atlanta is 20 cents per gallon cheaper than this time last year. Inflation is almost cut in half. All of this began after October 1st,'' he wrote. Well, October 1st was the start of our program.

Hazel Quinn from Texas said, ``As a senior citizen living on social security, your program is working to our benefit. Groceries have remained stable.''

John McMullen from Michigan told us that, ``The other philosophy of tax and spend has a record of failure. Fight on,'' he said. Well, we will.

We're seeing signs that the economy is ready to turn up. The record high interest rates we inherited nearly wrecked the housing industry, but as we've begun to bring those rates down, housing starts have increased steadily over the last 5 months. Airline travel, an indicator of future business activity, is up. There'll be an increase in automobile production in the second quarter of 1982.

Another very important sign -- Americans are starting to save again. In the 6 months since that first 5-percent phase of our tax cut took effect, the rate of personal savings has risen to 5.7 percent from 5.1 percent for the year before. This means billions more in the capital pool to finance new investments, jobs, and economic growth. It also indicates lower interest rates ahead.

We can do even better if you help us protect the first decent tax incentives for your families -- the 10 percent cut in July and the one in 1983 -- the first since John F. Kennedy's tax cut nearly 20 years ago. Yes, our tax cut is big, and yet it barely offsets the enormous increase in taxes built into the system in 1977. That was the biggest single tax increase in our history, and there are more installments of that yet to come in the next couple of years.

We must be fair to all our people. We're devoting one of the largest shares in the history of the Federal budget to assisting low-income Americans. But let's ask ourselves, where was the fairness in those bankrupt spending policies that gave us double-digit inflation, record interest rates, and a trillion-dollar debt?".... More




blog comments powered by Disqus