Not too long ago the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all busted through their 200 and 50 day moving average. The Transports ($TRAN, $IYT) tested and failed that level recently and now price action is being squeezed between the 50 and 200dma awaiting trend decision. I wouldn't stand in front of this uptrend (or at least in size) until it breaks the 50 day and trend support. Also watch for the 50/200 day "golden cross" to the upside which would be a long term bullish indicator. Puts open are dominating calls however there is no crazy OTM activity. The IYT Schaeffers Volatility Index is at 0.41, up 10% from 0.37 on June 5. Look at the $IYT chart.
From MarketWatch (Slumbering ports will get busier as year ends: analyst) IHS Global Insight sees port volume declines flattening out by year end.
"By the fourth quarter there will be signs of a turnaround. We will have stopped declining in terms of volume," said Paul Bingham, managing director in global commerce and transportation at IHS Global Insight, in an interview Wednesday."
"Global Insight's Port Tracker's gauge estimates that inbound container traffic at North American ports fell 21% in the first half of this year compared with same period last year. "That has followed expectations of extremely weak demand from consumers and businesses combined with an inventory drawdown," said Bingham."
The Baltic Dry Index is STILL on fire since the beginning of the year. Liquidity is back in the shipping biz. But like @stockjockey said on Stocktwits today, what happens if the weak economy trumps the reflation trade fueled by China?
The Association of American Railroads came out with a weekly report on June 18. There was a weekly improvement in freight traffic but year over year freight traffic remained significantly lower.
Rail Freight Traffic Continues to Show Slight Improvement
Rail Carloadings and Intermodal Both Up From Previous Week
WASHINGTON, June 18, 2009 — Freight traffic on U.S. railroads during the week ended June 13 continued to show signs of gradual improvement, the Association of American Railroads reported today. Rail carloadings and intermodal were up from the previous week with carloads at their highest level in 10 weeks. While traffic showed signs of improvement from the previous week, compared year over year traffic remains down.
U.S railroads reported originating 261,956 cars, up 0.6 percent from the previous week this year, but down 19 percent from the same week in 2008. Regionally, carloadings were down 14.7 percent in the West and 24.8 percent in the East.
Intermodal volume of 189,508 trailers or containers was up 0.4 percent from the previous week, but was down 17 percent from the same week last year. Container volume fell 11.5 percent and trailer volume dropped 37.0 percent.
Total volume on U.S. railroads for the week ending June 13 was estimated at 27.7 billion ton-miles, off 17.8 percent from the same week last year.
FedEx ($FDX) just came out with numbers and they continued to print red ink. Q4 revenues were down 20% from last year. FedEx projected Q1 EPS to be between .30-.45 and it looks like a pool of 14 analysts (via Yahoo Finance) thought they would hit .70. Are they low balling expectations or are these #s just f*d up? I say watch the chart. Management had a gloomy outlook and oil prices are not helping the situation.
"The operating environment for our first two quarters in fiscal 2010 is expected to be extremely difficult," said Alan B. Graf, Jr., FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer. "Manufacturing activity is expected to be substantially negative year over year through the summer and last year's first quarter results benefited from stronger economic activity, making earnings comparisons difficult. Also, the recent run-up in fuel prices will have a significant negative impact on our first quarter's results. At this time we do not have enough visibility into the economic recovery and jet fuel prices to provide a meaningful annual earnings forecast. However, we believe that FedEx will be poised for growth in our fiscal second half, as our many cost-saving initiatives gain traction and the economy begins to improve." FedEx Press Release
In conclusion, watch the charts and option activity for a move. Traders will know a rebound in this data before it hits.
Disclosure: No Position
