Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Roubini Sees Deflationary Pressures, Unemployment at 11% and Output Gap

Dr. Roubini at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit was interviewed at by Dan Burns. Here is the video and a few points he made, he thinks the $GOLD run is premature.
  • Too much talk about green shoots, sees mostly yellow weeds
  • Still sees data showing contraction rather than expansion
  • For next year and a half deflationary pressures will be dominant
  • Massive output gap: Demand falling relative to excess supply/demand
  • Prices will be cut to sell inventories
  • CPI still negative in US and across the world
  • Labor market is a major slack, unemployment will reach 11% in US
  • Slack in goods and labor markets = deflationary pressures
  • Sees inflation problem in 2 years due to Fed monetization of debt
  • Thinks oil and gold are overpriced





blog comments powered by Disqus