Tuesday, June 16, 2009

SPY/UUP Ratio to SPY, Jim Rogers Dow 30,000, Market Correction v. USD Bid

If the market corrects here $UUP (US Dollar Index ETF) could catch a bid again. Look at the inverse relationship between the S&P and US Dollar. I specifically charted out the SPY:UUP Ratio vs. SPY below. It looks exactly the same. That's why Jim Rogers on CNBC said the Dow could reach 20,000-30,000 during a currency crisis. The inflation play is all about timing..

SPY:UUP/SPY (Stockcharts.com)




$UUP options were active yesterday and open interest had a boost today. Over 6694 September 24 calls traded with 2984 open (now 7469). Also 1659 dropped on the July 24 call with 2872 open (now 4118). Watch for a $UUP 50/200d test if those were speculative or used as short hedges.

UUP September 24 Calls (Yahoo Finance)

UUP July 24 Calls (Yahoo Finance)

Reading/Videos:
US Dollar: Rally May Have Legs (FX360)
Kathy Lien on US Dollar (Bloomberg Video)
Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar (Ashraf Laidi)
IMF official says U.S. dollar reserve status to stay (Reuters)
Russia’s Kudrin Signals No Alternative to Dollar (Bloomberg)
BRICs May Buy Each Other’s Bonds in Shift From Dollar (Bloomberg)
*Goldman’s O’Neill Sees Potential ‘Correction’ Over Next Weeks (Bloomberg)

Also this is a must see: Ashraf's 2-hour webinar on HamzeiAnalytics, addressing currencies, bond yields, yield curves and multi-year cycles (Ashraf Laidi at HamzeiAnalytics) Windows Media Player.




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