EIA's weekly storage report ending August 7 showed that 3,152 billion cubic feet were in storage. The storage number is up over the week, up over the year, and above the 2004-2008 range so it's flat out bearish and has been reflected in the price.
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (eia.doe.gov)
Any research sites out there analyze futures options put/call data? The natural gas futures curve is in contango. You could buy natural gas at spot today, sell the December 2010 future, store the gas for a year and two months and make 115% even if it goes to zero. The September natural gas future is trading at $3.11 and the December 2010 future trades at $6.718. Remember the crude oil curve was in contango in late 2008 (Super Contango Oil Arbitrage -Dec '08).
Barchart.com provides call/put premium open interest data on futures options, not contract open interest. Natural gas call/put premium ratios through March 2010 are strongly skewed toward puts (Sep: 0.0064, Oct: 0.04, Nov: 0.07, Dec: 0.13, Jan: 0.22, Feb: 0.24). That's all of the p/c ratio data I could find. At some point the trade will become too crowded and a positive catalyst could squeeze the herd and reward contrarians. I'll be watching the chart. We'll see if that call buyer ends up making dough on a spike.
Sources, related:
Hedge fund bets millions on gas prices (FTAlphaville)
Hedge fund bets millions that gas price will triple (FT.com)
