Thursday, September 3, 2009

GLD Breaks Out, December $100 Call Up 49% (Charts: GLD, Comex Gold Futures)

DV posted many times about the inflection point in GLD, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (1, 2). It finally broke out of a symmetrical triangle. The October and December Comex Gold futures "pierced" through resistance. Not sure of the exact catalyst, could have been the FOMC Minutes, manufacturing growth in China with inflationary pressures or a safe haven bid. More on China's data.
"Improved demand conditions boosted companies’ pricing power in July, highlighted by the first rise in prices charged in just under a year. Anecdotal evidence suggested that firms had raised their output charges in response to higher input costs. According to the latest data, input price inflation was registered for the first time since September last year. Strong growth of input prices was in contrast to the considerable declines registered around the turn of the year. Survey responses suggested that more expensive raw materials had placed upward pressure on firms’ cost burdens. (CLSA China Manufacturing PMI, CLSA.com)

I provided the GLD chart plus the October and December Comex Gold future. Volume in GLD hit levels not seen since March and volume spiked in the December futures.

GLD (OptionsXpress)

Comex Gold October Future (OptionsXpress)

Comex Gold December Future (OptionsXpress)


Now if you remember this post from last Friday, I showed that 20,000 GLD December $100 Calls exchanged hands at $2.55 or $5.1 Million. Today that contract trades at $3.80, up 49% in 3 days to $7.6 Million. Think how much they'd be worth if GLD broke $1,000.

GLD December $100 Call (OptionsXpress)


Recent posts on GLD:
GLD Call Options Active at Dec, March $100 Strike (August 28)
John Paulson Keeps GLD Investment, Watching Symmetrical Triangle (August 13)
GLD Trade Setting Up Here + UUP, AUDJPY Pre FOMC (August 12)
Gold Spot Eyeing $1,000, GLD at Inflection Point (2 Year Chart) (August 6)

I'm watching to see how the story ends with the US Dollar Index, Gold, Silver, Copper, China, Aussie/Yen and Aussie/USD.




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