"The reasoning behind the disparate paths was clear enough. If investors bet short-term rates will rise quickly, then they feel comfortable about the longer-term path of inflation, making them feel better about holding bonds that mature in seven years or more." (Reuters)
Monday, September 28, 2009
$TLT Above Resistance, Hedging Market or "Stern" Fed?
I'm watching TLT break above resistance heading toward 100, $UUP (USD Long ETF) testing resistance and GLD, SPY bouncing off of support, something has to give here. I find TLT's strength here interesting. This strength could be hedging a market/reflation trade correction or it could be betting on the Fed. Read this Reuters article. It noted Kevin Warsh's oped piece in the WSJ and it's "stern" tone on fighting inflation. IMO, last thing we need right now is another inverted yield curve.