Performance Gap Between Baltic Dry Index, CRB, Transports, $SEA and Shanghai Index (October, 2009)

How crazy is this market. The $VIX spiked 23.95% (Friday), Baltic Dry Index gained 3%, CIT Group filed for bankruptcy (one of largest in U.S. history), China's PMI hit an 18 month high (55.4) and US manufacturing "expanded in October at the fastest pace in more than three years" (55.7). $ES_F is up 1.38% right now (SPX emini future).

Also look at the one month performance gap between the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Index, Shanghai Index, Transportation Index ($TRAN) and Shipping ETF ($SEA). In October: $BDI +31.65%, $CRB +6.92%, Shanghai Index +2.89%, $SEA +2.48% and $TRAN -2.15%. That is a huge performance gap! Perhaps the BDI is playing catch up on the 3-5 month charts. Is China oversupplied or are commodities just getting started? Here are recent "backward looking" articles on China's growth, iron ore demand and 9 month/September import data. View the charts below.

China Q1-Q3 iron ore imports from Australia up nearly 40 pct (Link/ChinaMining.org)
Steel Inventories in China Jump 10% in Nine Months (Link/ChinaMining.org)
China's coal prices may increase 5%-10% in 2010 (ChinaMining.org)
September Coal Imports up 235% in September (Change on Yr) (Link/ChinaMining.org)
China's Refined Copper Imports Climb 29% in September (Link/ChinaMining.org)
Chinese steel market to face uncertainties till 2009 end
ArcelorMittal sees fall in Chinese steel inventories
China iron ore demand easing -BHP Billiton chief executive (ABCnews-au)
HSBC raises 2009 China GDP growth forecast to 8.1% (xinhuanet)
China's PMI hit an 18 month high (55.4)


Baltic Dry Index (Bulk Shipping Index)(Charts Courtesy of Stockcharts.com)

Shipping ETF (SEA) vs. Baltic Dry Index

BDI vs. Transports, Shanghai Index, CRB Index