Friday, December 18, 2009

Roubini: Dollar Carry Trade Has Legs, Brazil Real Overvalued (USD/BRL, Global Interest Rates)

Roubini believes the rally in risky assets has further to run on the US Dollar carry trade. From Reuters yesterday: Roubini: carry trade to last at least 6 more months. He also believes the Brazil Real is overvalued (Bloomberg). Others are hopping on the BRL is overdone train (Demand for Brazilian Real May Wane in 2010, Levycam Says).  So who will pick up BRLs carry trade slack, AUD? Here's a 1 year chart of USD/BRL and global interest rates.

BRL/USD (courtesy quote.com)





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