Soros, Are You Long Or Short The US Dollar?

This is a great interview with George Soros on Tech Ticker regarding his view on the US Dollar. Here are some quotes.
Aaron Task: "So how are you positioned currently in the Dollar?"

George Soros: "....Actually the dollar currently is very strong, much stronger than it was this time last year and that is actually a measure of the sickness, the fever chart in a way, because people don't buy dollars because they want to hold dollars, they buy dollars because they owe dollars and (__) their loans, so that is what is supporting the Dollar"

Aaron Task: Would you advise your fund managers to be long the Dollar at this point?

George Soros: "Well look, it's a very complicated thing and of course I know exactly what the dollar is going to do but I'm not at liberty to (tell)..

Indexes Need a Dow Follow Through (DIA, SPY, QQQQ Weekly Charts)

The SPY (S&P 500) broke though a minor trend however the DIA (Dow) needs to follow through. The Dow must be able to break these levels to confirm a SERIOUS move for the whole market. There also needs to be a spike in volume. I wouldn't step in front of this train, but it wouldn't hurt to insure some long positions or put stops in. The SPY could be forming a bearish wedge but it could turn bullish. It all depends how the economy reacts to these Gov injections and how the market digests earnings. Roubini still thinks we're in a bear market rally (Keynote speech video April 8, 2009 via Globeandmail). I provided a CNN Money Roubini interview below. Plus I didn't know Roubini and Jim Cramer had beef. Very interesting times..., up or down from here get ready.


SPY WEEKLY (Stockcharts.com)


DIA WEEKLY (Stockcharts.com)


QQQQ WEEKLY (Stockcharts.com)



Jim Cramer "Betting the Market" PBS Frontline '97

I found some interesting PBS Frontline videos from 1997 featuring Jim Cramer and Peter Lynch etc. It gives a picture of the market right before the tech bubble. The last video talks about the retiring baby boomers and stock market risks. What's interesting is the market hasn't moved since these videos!


S&P 500 1/1997 - 4/2009 (Bigcharts.com)

Bernanke Speech/Q&A at Morehouse College (4/14/2009)

Bernanke's Speech at Morehouse College in Atlanta, Georgia on 4/14/2009. I found Q&A videos too.
"The current crisis has been one of the most difficult financial and economic episodes in modern history. Recently we have seen tentative signs that the sharp decline in economic activity may be slowing, for example, in data on home sales, homebuilding, and consumer spending, including sales of new motor vehicles. A leveling out of economic activity is the first step toward recovery. To be sure, we will not have a sustainable recovery without a stabilization of our financial system and credit markets. We are making progress on that front as well, and the Federal Reserve is committed to working to restore financial stability as a necessary step toward full economic recovery." Full Text

Time to Hedge SPY Longs w/ Puts? Testing Resistance, Well Above 50 Day Moving Average.

If I was long $SPY in size I'd probably hedge with some May-June puts for insurance. Lower volatility has pulled down premium, however lower vol could limit option (insurance) profitability if SPY corrects just a few points. Someone with dough could even sell out of the money covered calls to lower their cost basis/increase yield. Here are the May and Jun SPY option chains. Puts require less capital to risk but price points and volatility are key for profitability (you'll rip up the contract or sell at a loss if the market spikes or declines less than premium before May/June). Going short or buying inverse ETFs could also hedge a technical breakdown but you're deploying more capital against long positions. All of this is my opinion. Here are sites I go to for options and volatility research Schaeffersresearch, Optionmonster, Investing With Options, VixAndMore, Daily Options Report.

$SPY increased 30% from $66.62 to $86.54 in a little over a month so it could take a rest eventually. Today retail sales numbers took the S&P down 2%. Total sales declined -1.8% vs. consensus +.03%. Here is Briefing's take.

"The fairly broad declines in sales for retail businesses in March has created some concern that the improvement in January and February might have been owed more to a temporary bounce than anything else following some bleak sales reports in the fourth quarter. This isn't good economic news and it certainly fits more with the weak employment data than the surprisingly good reports seen in January and February. It is a setback that is apt to cause a number of investors to second guess the big run seen in the retail stocks." (Source: Briefing.com)

Even with decent news from Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo , I'm wondering if poor earnings or an ugly GM bankruptcy could throw the market a curve ball. Also if the S&P wants to hit 1100 by year end (Leuthold Group's call), a minor fib retracement would provide a stronger foundation IMO.

The $SPY is testing its long term downtrend as well as 87 ceiling resistance. A break above those levels with volume would give victory to the bulls and the economic recovery. If it fails, the 50 day moving average and $80-ish look like decent support levels. SPY hasn't officially broken down yet so watch for the TIPI break!.

Obama's Speech at Georgetown (Full Video 4/14/09)

Obama's speech on "How we are going to deal with so many of our economic challenges".