- 40% dead cat bounce from March to May
- 6 points of multiple expansion during rally, not earnings driven
- Consensus: $75 operating earnings per share priced into 2010
- At best we'll see $50 this year in S&P earnings
- Equities are pricing in an earnings recovery we won't see until 2012
- $50 in EPS + 13-14 multiple = $675ish... (So, retest?)
- Another fiscal package won't save the day
- Had 18 Year bull market (1982-2000), we move in 18 year cycles..
- Halfway through secular bear market in equities, w/ two price peaks (wow)
- There will be huge spasms along the way, you can't be a buy and hold investor!
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