Monthly TEU Statistics, Cargo Volume + Port of Long Beach

In addition to the Port of LA, the Port of Long Beach provides valuable cargo data. You can find the most recent month, YTD annual container trade totals, an archive of monthly totals since 1995, in terms of TEUs for import export and empty containers. They also provide a five-year comparison of cargo volume, value and container units or TEUs. Also they provide a "report on year-to-date tonnage figures, with statistics on inbound cargo, outbound cargo, containers, general cargo, petroleum/liquid bulk and dry bulk".

Website link: http://www.polb.com/economics/stats/default.asp

Posted by newsbysector.blogspot.com.

SpaceX Falcon - Razaksat Launch Video (July 13)

Elon Musk's SpaceX passes the test. Awesome.



Quoted from Youtube bio and Spacex.com.
Musk stated, "We nailed the orbit to well within target parameters...pretty much a bullseye. Satellite has separated and is communicating with (the) ground." This launch marked the 5th flight of the Falcon 1. Liftoff from Omelek Island, Kwajalein Atoll occured at 8:35 P.M. PDT.

Bernanke Video: State of the Economy and Monetary Policy (July 22)

Here is the full Bernanke testimony video and text before the Senate Committee from CSPAN.org.

"Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke testified in a hearing on the Humphrey-Hawkins Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, current economic conditions, and the outlook for the financial sector and the broader economy. Several members voiced concerns about the commercial real estate market, and expressed concern that troubles in that market could threaten any recovery. Additionally, lawmakers pressed Mr. Bernanke for more solutions to tight credit markets and continued foreclosures." CSPAN

Treasury ETFs TLT, TLH Setting Up For $200 Billion Auction

The Treasury is set to auction off $235 Billion worth of Treasuries (70 day cash management bills to 7-Year notes) next week. Karl Denninger at the Market Ticker provides more info on the auction schedule. This is a big debt issuance.
"NEW YORK, July 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. government is set to sell record amounts of long-dated Treasury securities next week in an effort to raise billions to fund its economic stimulus package and industry bailouts." (Reuters)

Today 9,000 $TLT (iShares 20+ Treasury ETF) December $90 out-of-the-money puts traded at $4.50 with 82 contracts open . $TLT closed at $91.01 around $90 support. Including the premium, these contracts would net profit if exercised below $85.50 before December 18, 2009 if the trade was bought-to-open.

TLT 3 Year Chart(Stockcharts.com)
TLT DEC 90 PUT (Yahoo Finance)


David Rosenberg Sees 2002 Redux, Not Fazed By SPY Breakout

$SPY breakouts don't faze David Rosenberg... He's still bearish. The Chief Economist and Strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates was on Bloomberg Radio today (July 23) - Bloomberg.com Audio Link, Windows Media Player.
Tom Keene: "David Rosenberg you say it is a redux of 2002, what do you mean by that, what is a redux of 2002?"

Rosenberg: "Well what I was saying was that you know today we talk about the green shoots and back then we were talking about V-shaped recoveries. Essentially what I was talking about Tom was that the stock market on September 24, 2001 hit what everybody believed at the time was going to be the low for the cycle. 955 on the S&P 500 that was universally believed to be THE low and we didn't bail out banks at that point but we were bailing out airlines, tremendous fiscal monetary stimulus and people were building in this view that we were going to have post 9/11 reconstruction, gobs of fiscal stimulus, the FED had cut rates dramatically and of course the fabled inventory rebuild which we saw and it took the ISM above 50 into the opening months of 2002 and it was all good. The Nasdaq rallied about 40%, all the major averages were surging, bonds were getting killed and the primary view was that we were going to get a really nice post recession recovery and the problem of course is that in an asset deflation cycle which that was, it wasn't easy street it took about a year and a half before we got a durable sustainable economic recovery. This time around it wasn't just asset deflation times three, it was coupled with a credit collapse and here we have this universally held view that the March lows are going to hold. Everybody believes that and maybe they will but I'm a bit of a Maverick contrarian at heart. Everybody believes those March lows are going to hold and everybody is talking about the green shoots and the onset of the economic recovery and of course we're probably going to see a positive third quarter GDP number because of the rebuilding of inventories in the auto sector and everybody is extrapolating that into the future as they did in the opening months of 2002."

"...We actually didn't put in the conclusive low in the stock market until 2003 which was a year after the recession ended.." (Listen to full 17:24 audio)

Other David Rosenberg interviews:
Rosenberg: Secular Bear Market at Halfway Point (CNBC Video) (July 7, 2009)
$SPY Testing May 2008 Downtrend, Technical Views From Strategists (June 9, 2009)

Market Bottom Chart Comparisons:
1973-75 Recession History, Chart, 2009 Comparison? (June 6)
Charts Comparing 1974, 1982, 2002 Market Bottoms To Today, 80s Recovery (June 7)


*Good find Pragmatic Capitalist.

VIX Futures Trading at Premium to Spot, Implied Volatility at Premium to Historical

Even though VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) futures are being pulled down during this market rally, VIX futures going out until October are trading at a steep premium to spot and VIX implied volatility is up significantly. An article at OptionMonster.com says this is a rare situation. I put together 2 charts with the VIX Futures Curve (on 7/20/09 and 7/22/09) using CBOE data. You can see the nice premium gap. It will be interesting to see how this gap fills and how the options play out.

S&P Looks In The Mirror And Sees The U.S Dollar

Look at the tight inverse relationship between the U.S Dollar and the S&P. Watch both prices at these critical levels.


US Dollar vs. S&P 500 (Stockcharts.com)

Related:
SPY/UUP Ratio to SPY + Jim Rogers on Dow 30,000 (Video) (June 16)
Gold-USD-S&P Charts. Reflation, Stag or Deflation Correction? (May 24)

Gasparino Disses Zero Hedge, CNBC Hates On Bloggers

Source: TraderTim on Flickr
The financial blog wars continue... With the $VIX close to 1 year lows it's hard to find action these days, unless you're watching implied volatility on financial journalism. Today Charlie Gasparino dissed Zero Hedge calling it "Zero Intelligence". This is after Dennis Kneale had some words about Zero Hedge and The Fly (links below). Tyler at Zero Hedge came out with this response today (Charlie Lets Zero Intelligence Have It) and also provided a CNBC vs. Zero Hedge Google search chart comparison lol. Don't hate the player, hate the game CNBC! By the way I'm deep in the money on my financial media $VIX OTM calls purchase.

Related:
Denninger Featured On CNBC, Kneale Disses The Fly (July 10, 2009)
Kneale of CNBC Takes On Financial Bloggers! (June 30, 2009)

Jeff Jarvis, Future of Ads and Marketing (Videos)

Brands will soon be valued on their google juice! Jeff Jarvis on the future of ads on FORA.tv.

"Jeff Jarvis: Future of Media and the Prospects for Brands Columbia Business School".

Port of Los Angeles TEU (Cargo) Statistics

Go to the Port of Los Angeles website for container statistics. Go to: TEU Statistics (Container Counts) (loaded inbound, outbound, total loaded, total empty), Historical TEU Statistics (by calendar year; includes monthly data), Tonnage statistics (general bulk, liquid bulk, dry bulk). Go to this statistics page for monthly data. The Los Angeles Board of Harbor Commissioners have webcasts and special meeting videos (special meeting 7/2/09 video) Overall great information for the health of our economy.

Calculated Risk also analyzes this March, Junedata. Also the Port of Long Beach which I'll touch on later.

Posted by newsbysector.blogspot.com.

Goldman Sees $52 Earnings, 1,060 S&P Target

GOLDMAN SEES S&P 500 2009 EPS $52, 2010 EPS $75, 2010 S&P 500 TARGET 1,060

Links:
Goldman sees S&P 500 rallying 13% by year's end (LA Times)
Goldman Sachs Puppet Master? (Motley Fool)
Goldman Ups S&P 500 Target for End-Year (CNBC Stock Blog)
Bullish Calls Drive Markets Higher (SeekingAlpha)
S&P 500 to Rally Most Since 1982, Goldman Sachs Says (Bloomberg)

Posted by newsbysector.blogspot.com.

SPY Inverse Head and Shoulders Breakout Chart Analysis (S&P ETF)

I was watching $SPY intraday action today and saw that the 5 min chart looked exactly like the 2 year weekly chart. In the morning $SPY broke down through a descending triangle and formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, breached neckline resistance and broke out to the upside into the close. Look how it compares to the 2 year chart, the set up is very similar. So you can see what would happen if the S&P 500 or $SPY broke through inverse h&s neckline resistance with conviction. $SPY is right at downtrend resistance, testing June resistance and the golden cross is in still in effect, in other words stay strapped w/ protection.

Inside Look at Lehman's Colossal Failure (Lawrence McDonald on CNBC)

Lawrence McDonald, who traded distressed debt at Lehman Brothers from 2004-2008, wrote a book called "A Colossal Failure of Common Sense" which gives a behind the scenes look at Lehman leading up to it's collapse. He promoted it on CNBC below.

Roubini: March Lows Will Stick, Chance of Correction (CNBC - July 20)

Roubini was on CNBC yesterday (July 20). He thinks the recession will be over by December, recovery will be weak with a 1% growth rate, unemployment will peak next year at 11% and the March lows will stick. However Roubini expects downside earnings surprises which could correct the market (and build that doggone inverse head and shoulders pattern). In early March Roubini thought the S&P would hit 600 (CBOE Conference Speech).

GLD Symmetrical Triangle, GDX, $USD, Australian Dollar/Gold ($XAD/GOLD)

Gold is still trying to figure out where it wants to go.... $GLD formed a near term symmetrical triangle or inflection point. It all depends on the US Dollar and inflation expectations going forward. There are still many analysts in the deflation or disinflation camp (links: Roubini, Shilling, Tom Lee of JP Morgan). You can see the inverse relationship between the USD and GOLD and the direct relationship between $XAD (Australian Dollar) and GOLD.

SPY P&F Chart Pierced 94 Resistance, Sideways Channel Since May

Last week SPY pierced through 94 resistance on the P&F chart (previous post shows the resistance test). It printed an X at 94 since it hit an intra-day high above $94 on Friday. For more information on point & figure charts go to stockcharts.com. The chart labeled the move on July 16 as a "Double Top Breakout" with a preliminary price objective of 109. In the very short term it could pave the way for a June 96 retest however I'd be ready to flip SPY if it rolls over and short/buy puts to position a h&s neckline retest. Since early May SPY has traded in a sideways channel and at some point a new trend MUST begin. The slow death of the VIX (volatility index) imo anticipated this 3 month trading range.

More $XLP (Consumer Staples) Call Activity (14000 XLP SEP 25 CALL)

Continued from my previous post: Consumer Staples ETF $XLP Calls Active, 40000 Jan 2010 $24 Calls Traded, XLP saw more call activity last Friday (JUL expiration). A large block dropped on the SEP XLP CALL. It closed w/ 14,503 contracts traded/1848 open. Looking closer via ISE, 10,000 contracts were traded at 10:11am on the ISE at 0.25. The ISEE value (ISE Customer Opening Long Calls/ISE Customer Opening Long Puts)*100 = 1.03M up 1.02M or 13.97k%. Calls/Puts = 10.32k/1 and Average Calls/Puts = 2.55k/2.09k.