President Barack Obama spoke in Tokyo on Friday about US-Asian alliances, economy, climate change and North Korea etc. Here are two speech videos from Whitehouse.gov, first from Japan's Prime Minister Yuio Hatoyama and then President Obama. I also included the full speech script. Currencies will be interesting to watch this week when Obama arrives in China. Something to read: China rounds on U.S. rates as global economic risk (Reuters).
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Friday, November 13, 2009
Bill Gates, Buffett On What Industry(s) Will Produce The Next Bill Gates (CNBC, Keeping America Great Transcript)
These are quotes from the CNBC Town Hall event, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates: Keeping America Great, taped Thursday, November 12, 2009 at Columbia University in New York City. The full transcript is here. I found this question interesting:
Doug Kass: Market Ignoring Short Term Warning Signs, Intermediate Challenges [Fast Money Video 11/12/09]
Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners was on Fast Money on 11/12/2009 and he thinks there's some "whistling passed the graveyard in this market". "Investors are being dismissive of a number of intermediate term challenges and importantly a lot of short term warning signs are being ignored or being rationalized away in the tide of rising world stock prices". For example he mentioned: New mortgage applications dropped to the "lowest level in 9 years", housing demand was uneven since Labor Day (via Bob Toll), U.S rail car loadings were "down 15.3%" in October vs. last year [worse than September] with weak consumer sentiment. He also mentioned an NFIA (National Federation of Independent Business Index) data point. Here is his follow up at TheStreet.com: Kass: My 'Fast Money' Recap.
DRYS at Week Inflection Point, Symmetrical Triangle Squeeze (Chart, 11/13/2009)
Like I said in the previous post, DRYS is at a major inflection point. Looking closer, there is a symmetrical triangle squeeze approaching on the 1 week/60 minute chart. This chart is at the close on 11/13/2009. Protect..
Continued from: Get Ready For A Move In Dryships -DRYS (Charts, Call Options Active, Links) (11/12)
DRYS links today:
Option Skews - Relatively Heavy Call Activity on DryShips Inc, Cisco Systems Inc, QLogic Corp, Seagate Technology (SchaeffersResearch)
Fair Wind From The East Lifts Bulk Shippers (Investopedia/11/12)
Continued from: Get Ready For A Move In Dryships -DRYS (Charts, Call Options Active, Links) (11/12)
DRYS - 60 Min - 11/13/2009 (Freestockcharts.com)
DRYS links today:
Option Skews - Relatively Heavy Call Activity on DryShips Inc, Cisco Systems Inc, QLogic Corp, Seagate Technology (SchaeffersResearch)
Fair Wind From The East Lifts Bulk Shippers (Investopedia/11/12)
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Watch IWM, UUP and UUP:IWM 50 Day Moving Averages and Trend Lines
The Russell 2000 ($IWM) ETF is selling off at it's 50 day moving average. The small caps are by far the slack of the market. As DV has said before, the Industrials ($DIA) are leading the maret. $UUP (US Dollar ETF) is seeing activity again in it's calls, after they doubled. Calls are active in the November and December $23s, however I have no idea what the nature of the trades are as over 220k are open. The ISEE value (ISE customer calls opened/puts*100) on the widget says Calls: 7,921, Puts: 237 = ISEE: 3,342 (top three bullish). Also $UUP busted through 50 day resistance again and the UUP:IWM ratio is above the 50dma, while UUP:SPY and UUP:DIA are not. If that has any significance. So the small caps really need a jolt here. They are just as important as the large caps for the economy. Is this just profit taking and/or temporary confusion in risk? Or is the "the six-month rally in risk assets at its pinnacle" (Bill Gross)? Check out the charts. All charts courtesy of stockcharts.com.
Get Ready For A Move In Dryships -DRYS (Charts, Call Options Active, Links)
I hope you like information overload. Is DryShips about to explode? $DRYS is being strangled in a symmetrical triangle and DRYS will explode in one way or another soon. Today's pierce of the 50 day moving average could help with an upside test. The Baltic Dry Index (shipping cost index) is up 39% in a month, while DRYS is only up 2.07%. BDI/DRYS diverged from July to September (BDI trended lower/DRYS trended higher). They don't always dance together (BDI is spot, DRYS contracts mostly fixed), but it is the overall barometer of dry bulk shipping costs. Here is the DryShips Q3 Presentation (via Dryships.com/IR), press release and info on a $71 million debt waiver ($117M to go.. they have debt issues). This post is focusing on the chart and option activity for a trade.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Trader Who Saw Psychic Last Night Bought 3Com Calls Before HP Buyout
At 12:00p today 3,800 November $5 COMS Calls exchanged hands at $0.65 ($247,000) and 3,100 December $5 COMS Calls at 0.80 ($248,000) or $495k total (via THQLA, THQKA from my option chart). That's the right to buy 690,000 shares of 3COM ($COMS) at $5.00 for $495,000 up front. To be in the money COMS would have to move above $5.65 and $5.80 before November and December expiration. After the close: HP to buy 3Com for $2.7 billion, $7.90/share.
Find Information on Metals, Mining, Fertilizers, Power, Cables, Steel..
I found a great site for information on metals, mining, fertilizers, power, cable and chemical sectors etc. It is called the CRU Group. Sections include Steel and Ferroalloys, Aluminum, Base and Precious Metals, Wire and Cable, Fertilizers/Chemicals etc. What I want to point you to is their RSS news feeds: http://cruonline.crugroup.com/SteelNews.rss. That feed is for steel, heree are others. Great site.
Posted by newsbysector.blogspot.com.
Posted by newsbysector.blogspot.com.
Find Steel Production, Crude Steel Statistics at World Steel Association
I came across the World Steel Association, worldsteel.org and it provides a wide range of information on crude steel production with charts and statistics. For example, here are crude steel statistics in figures for the latest period. You can download excel spreadsheets as well. World Steel Association statistics are released on the 20th of each month for the previous month. Here are the latest steel statistics list. Here are news releases on their website.
Posted by newsbysector.blogspot.com.
Posted by newsbysector.blogspot.com.
Go to AgWeb for Agricultural News for Futures Traders, Commodities Information
If you are involved in the agriculture space directly or as a trade, AgWeb.com is the place to visit for news updates on Agrictuture news. A headline exrample: Economist: USDA Forecasts Larger Soybean and Smaller Corn Crop - 11/11/2009. It is powered by FarmJournal and specific headline sections include: corn, soybeans, wheat, technology and more. They also have a blog section and an area dedicated to the markets.
Here is their RSS FEED: http://www.agweb.com/RSS/AgNews.xml.
Posted by newsbysector.blogspot.com.
Here is their RSS FEED: http://www.agweb.com/RSS/AgNews.xml.
Posted by newsbysector.blogspot.com.
Tomson Riviera Unit Sells At Record Price, 0258 Testing $4 at 2007 Highs (Tomson Group 湯臣集团 Charts )
Distressed Volatility (仿旧波动) - China Section (中国科)
I've been writing about property stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange during the past month because I keep reading stories about record multi-million dollar unit sales. A 39 Conduit unit in Hong Kong sold for $57 Million and now a luxury apartment in Shanghai at the Tomson Riviera sold for a record $14 million (h/t Shanghai Daily). I charted out the Hang Seng Property Index and Henderson Land (0012) in October and spotted a symmetrical triangle inflection point on .HSNP which worked out well from 28k to 31k. The Hang Seng Properties Index is now unfortunately under 28k, which is now new resistance. There could be repercussions on the long side if it can't get over 28k. Here are links, but back to Tomson..
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Check Out Lender Processing Services For Mortgage Data News Releases
Go to Lender Processing Services for mortgage news releases. For example, here is the "Industry Data" section and the "latest news" section. Here is the November 9 release:
"Nov. 9, 2009
Lender Processing Services' October Mortgage Monitor Report Shows Delinquencies, Foreclosures at Record Highs
New Loan Production is Holding Steady vs. 2008 With A High Percentage of FHA/VA Loans
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Nov. 9, 2009 – The October Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. (NYSE: LPS), shows record high rates for non-current loans, as well as an upswing in loan production volume over the previous year. Published by LPS, a leading provider of mortgage performance data and analytics, the October 2009 Mortgage Monitor report is an in-depth summary of mortgage industry performance indicators based on data collected as of September 30, 2009.
IWM, XHB Technical Update (11/9/2009) Under 50dma + MACD Zero Line. Will SPY, QQQQ, DIA Provide Support?
Continued from my previous post on DIA, which has been the strongest index ETF out of the majors, IWM (Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF) and XHB (Homebuilders ETF) are still under their 50 day moving average with MACD levels under the zero line. The question is will SPY, QQQQ and DIA (large caps,tech) carry IWM (small caps) and XHB (housing) going forward, or will someone roll over and start the wave down. Since the March lows QQQQ (tech) was the leader and supported DIA and SPY along the way.
IWM is trading right below the 50 day moving average with relative strength (RSI) at 51 and the MACD under the zero line. When the MACD breaks below the zero line it means the 12 day moving average crossed below the 26 day moving average (faster moved below slower) and sometimes confirms downside momentum. Of course there are head fakes. In July there was a brief moment when 12 crossed below 26 but it quickly reversed when the market rallied hard. Now it looks like the MACD made a new low from July (we'll see if it means anything). Also, volume was higher on down days and lower on up days. Watch the $59.50-$60.00 level because if it breaks above the 50dma there is probably further upside and/or failed double top or triple top test. We shall see people.
XHB looks similar. It is making lower highs from September, price is just below the 50 day moving average, RSI is making lower highs from August and the MACD is under the zero line with a recent MACD/9dma cross to the upside. That's the only major difference it looks like, look at the histogram. Also there was a huge up move on strong volume at the end of October. So we'll see how it ends up. Charts of IWM and XHB w/ tech's are below plus recent news articles, blog posts and option activity.
IWM (Courtesy of Stockcharts.com)
IWM is trading right below the 50 day moving average with relative strength (RSI) at 51 and the MACD under the zero line. When the MACD breaks below the zero line it means the 12 day moving average crossed below the 26 day moving average (faster moved below slower) and sometimes confirms downside momentum. Of course there are head fakes. In July there was a brief moment when 12 crossed below 26 but it quickly reversed when the market rallied hard. Now it looks like the MACD made a new low from July (we'll see if it means anything). Also, volume was higher on down days and lower on up days. Watch the $59.50-$60.00 level because if it breaks above the 50dma there is probably further upside and/or failed double top or triple top test. We shall see people.
XHB looks similar. It is making lower highs from September, price is just below the 50 day moving average, RSI is making lower highs from August and the MACD is under the zero line with a recent MACD/9dma cross to the upside. That's the only major difference it looks like, look at the histogram. Also there was a huge up move on strong volume at the end of October. So we'll see how it ends up. Charts of IWM and XHB w/ tech's are below plus recent news articles, blog posts and option activity.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Albert Edwards of SocGen Expects New Market Lows In 2010
1) SocGen's top analyst sees market lows next year (link: Reuters)
2) Stocks Drop May Turn Into ‘Rout’ as Economy Peaks, SocGen Says (link: Bloomberg)
"Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The two-week retreat in global equities may turn into a “rout” after a measure of so-called... (read more)"
3) Synchronicity and Stock Prices (link: Barron's)
4) Edwards (SocGen) pessimiste pour les marchés en 2010 (link: Reuters.fr)
ht paul kedrosky
2) Stocks Drop May Turn Into ‘Rout’ as Economy Peaks, SocGen Says (link: Bloomberg)
"Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The two-week retreat in global equities may turn into a “rout” after a measure of so-called... (read more)"
3) Synchronicity and Stock Prices (link: Barron's)
4) Edwards (SocGen) pessimiste pour les marchés en 2010 (link: Reuters.fr)
ht paul kedrosky
Diamonds (DIA) Leading Major ETFs, Took Out All Resistance and Eyeing $105 (DIA, QQQQ, SPY, IWM Performance Comparison)
After using the 50dma as support last week, DIA (etf for the Dow Industrials), held September support, took out the October/November downtrend and broke through October resistance today (see charts below). During the past month DIA led the SPY, QQQQ and IWM (Russell 2000/small caps). From October 19-November 9 DIA was up 1.55%, SPY -0.20%, QQQQ +0.69% and IWM -4.78%. It is mandatory that IWM holds on to the large caps on this mountain. I'll chart that out next. The 3 year chart shows $105(ish) as a resistance level from July 2008 and the present value of the 2007 downtrend. From 2007 highs/2009 lows DIA is trading between the 50-68.2% retracement level. DIA closed at 102.42 so there could be more green % points to flip, but these long term resistance levels make me a little cautious. And because DIA is up 60.4% from the lows and still hasn't hit orbit. *It could go up another 60% if the US Dollar (S&Ps reciprocal) makes new lows, but probably not in Gold/S&P terms (imo).
Option Activity On ISE: $PG, $TLT, Put/Call Ratios and Trades
No charts on this post. I was scoping ISE data for high call/put ratios and $PG and $TLT made the list. Call volume was 45,603 vs. 7,825 puts. ISE Calls/ISE Puts ended Friday at 62.9 (11,062/176). PG implied volatility is at 18.66 vs. a historical reading of 19.57. PG closed at 61.04 today. The ISEE Value (calls opened v. puts opened * 100) was up 209% to 51 (under 100 though). Andrew Wilkinson of Interactive Brokers mentioned a 10,000 call spread at the 60-62.50 strike (Staples firm – Proctor & Gamble options suggest further upside). PG needs to get over $61.13 and stay below $62.50 to profit, read the link. The chart looks like it could test $62.50 resistance. The data is free under the quote section at ISE.com. You can also view the top 3 bullish and bearish securities on my sidebar widget.
TLT was another ETF that had high call volume. ISE data showed that 58,312 calls traded vs. 4,306 puts. The ISE Call/Put ratio was 4.96K/153 or 32.4 calls for each put. IV was at 14.82 and HV 15.39. The ISEE Value was up 1.9k% to 681. OptionMonster mentioned call volume on an otm November strike that was 2x open interest. Go to the article: Strategy positions for bond rally. On the chart I can't rule out a 50d or even 200d resistance test. We'll see about the long bond though. Overnight, gold spot is testing 1,110 and the DX plunged to 75.09.
TLT was another ETF that had high call volume. ISE data showed that 58,312 calls traded vs. 4,306 puts. The ISE Call/Put ratio was 4.96K/153 or 32.4 calls for each put. IV was at 14.82 and HV 15.39. The ISEE Value was up 1.9k% to 681. OptionMonster mentioned call volume on an otm November strike that was 2x open interest. Go to the article: Strategy positions for bond rally. On the chart I can't rule out a 50d or even 200d resistance test. We'll see about the long bond though. Overnight, gold spot is testing 1,110 and the DX plunged to 75.09.
Rupert Murdoch Might Remove Google Indexing [Via SkyNews] 11/2009
Let the media volatility begin. Rupert Murdoch of NewsCorp (head of WSJ, Fox, Sky) had a 37 minute interview with SkyNews. Rupert gets into online advertising, WSJ, subscription based content, possibly removing content from Google (robot.txt) and his thoughts on YouTube/video. At the end he gets into Australian politics. This continues from this post NYT, WSJ, Google, HuffPost at Web 2.0 Summit on Journalism (10/22/09). What is going to happen with online journalism? I think freemium/ad based is the way to go but advertisers need to ante up!
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Why Aren't CDS Indices Streaming On CNBC? Make Credit Default Swaps Available To Retail Investors [ABX, CMBX, CDX, MCDX]
Why aren't CDS indices streaming on CNBC yet? Don't people realize credit default swaps were partly responsible for the financial collapse and the billions of dollars made by hedge fund managers/Goldman Sachs? Go to wikipedia for the whole explanation on Credit default swaps. They are essentially insurance contracts that speculators or hedgers can use to protect from losses on bond defaults. Hedge fund manager John Paulson (post + congress testimony video) made money in 2007-2008 by shorting sub-prime mortgages via CDS indexes. It was an amazing trade, and that is why Greg Zuckerman of WSJ wrote a book on it called "The Greatest Trade Ever".
I'm sure shady stuff went down in this closed off institutional market, especially when the trade got crowded and more expensive. Hedge fund managers are now saying they should be banned, based on systemic risks and underlying anti-social behavior (incentive to see companies fail). Here are David Einhorn and *George Soros's thoughts on credit default swaps (*+ Ken Griffin on the new exchange). Soros at a conference in Beijing:"Some bond holders own CDS and stood to gain more in bankruptcy than reorganization. It's like buying life insurance on someone else's life and owning a license to kill him" (Video).
Since Dvol believes credit default swaps still serve a purpose, I believe that credit default swaps, CDS data (indices) and more importantly signals should be transparent and available to the retail investor, retiree, small business owner, garbage man etc. Zero Hedge recently had a long post about the CDS market:
I'm sure shady stuff went down in this closed off institutional market, especially when the trade got crowded and more expensive. Hedge fund managers are now saying they should be banned, based on systemic risks and underlying anti-social behavior (incentive to see companies fail). Here are David Einhorn and *George Soros's thoughts on credit default swaps (*+ Ken Griffin on the new exchange). Soros at a conference in Beijing:"Some bond holders own CDS and stood to gain more in bankruptcy than reorganization. It's like buying life insurance on someone else's life and owning a license to kill him" (Video).
Since Dvol believes credit default swaps still serve a purpose, I believe that credit default swaps, CDS data (indices) and more importantly signals should be transparent and available to the retail investor, retiree, small business owner, garbage man etc. Zero Hedge recently had a long post about the CDS market:
