Zero Hedge Catches Trades in New York Community Bancorp NYB and Options Pre-AmTrust Acquisition via FDIC

Nice work over at ZeroHedge/SEC.  They saw price and call option action in NYB pre-acquisition of failed Amherst Bank via FDIC today.

"Mary Schapiro Must Immediately Investigate The FDIC's Confidential Information Leak In Another Blatant Insider Trading Case, Then Resign (Link:  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mary-schapiro-must-immediately-investigate-fdics-confidential-information-leak-another-blata)."

$USDX, Dollar Rallies Hard On Jobs Catalyst, Pierces Downtrend, Moving Average and Set To Battle $76 Resistance [US Dollar Index Charts, TLT Mention]

12/4/09:  The US Dollar (DXY) rallied HARD today with the better than expected jobs data. Check out the short and long term DXY charts.  Dvol & Co. has been writing about this downtrend and options activity for the past 90,000 days.  Use the search bar or click UUP or US Dollar for the most recent google search results.  Is the 50 day moving average test DIFFERENT this time?  I've been waiting for a catalyst that would break this trend.  As you can see, US:DXY broke a downtrend from November and pierced through the long term downtrend from March and 50 day moving average.

DXY is on fire, up 1.6%, 30Y T-bond yields are up ($TYX) is up 1.93% yielding 4.41% which is beheading GLD, down -5% and taking gains away from the S&P.  Finally an interesting day but it is still a mind f--- because it could be that good news is now bad news which rallies yields and the Dollar and corrects commodities and the markets.  Or growth is so strong that the rising cost of capital + top/bottom line earnings absorb valuations.  It will be interesting to see what happens.  Yields and the S&P rallied together after the March lows given that Treasuries hit capitulative highs and markets hit capitulative lows.  Now things are different, the S&P is up 60% and Treasuries are being squashed in a wedge.  Fyi, TLTs 50 and 200dma are at par with price action below both levels now.  Both might act as resistance going forward.  Here are US Dollar Index Charts (Year, 6 mo) courtesy of Stockcharts.com.

Text from chart.  $76 ceiling break is a must for a hedged squeeze play imo.  $76 also hits a minor downtrend resistance level from September.  If you read my posts during the past month there has been massive call interest in $UUP possibly positioning for a squeeze (like today) and/or hedging their short books.  If traders take profits it could chop around 75-76 before deciding it's ultimate fate.  It is a tough downtrend to battle if you are inclined to do so, bring your teflon vest.  Lows from 2008 aren't that far away...

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Sergey Brin Guest at Search Engine Class (UCBerkeley, 2005), Anatomy of a Large-Scale Web Search Engine (Link)

This is interesting. "SIMS 141 - Search, Google, and Life: Sergey Brin - Google" (October 2005). Sergey talks about page rank, innovative algorithms, how Google started out and more. He also does a Q&A session. Also check this out: The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine by Sergey Brin and Lawrence Page, Computer Science Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305".

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Sports Illustrated Touch Screen Tablet Demo, Will They Save Print Media?

Will the interactive tablet save print media? You buy a touch screen tablet and subscribe to magazines and newspapers, correct? Sounds like an interesting plan. Make it 3D.

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$SPY Chart Technical Analysis: 50, 61.8% Retracements, Downtrend, Ceiling Resistance and Ultimate Wedge [Place Your Market Bets, 12/4/09]

December 4, 2009: As I've mentioned before, SPY is up against some important technical levels at the moment. It is hitting downtrend resistance from the 2007 highs and the 50% retracement level. If Tom Lee of JP Morgan is right that we see high 1100s on the S&P before year end, the 61.8% retracement/2006 ceiling resistance/pre-Lehman levels could be in the cards. The last time we saw a real correction was in July, when sellers overtook buyers at minor downtrend resistance (from May highs). $SPY is currently in the vertex of the ultimate wedge as you can see. Watch for a decisive move soon.  Look at this long term technical beauty from FreeStockCharts.com. I also provided a live chart below so you can see what happens (requires a plug in I believe).

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Catalyst Watch For S&P, SPY, TLT, GLD and Treasury Yields [12/4/09]

Whether it was Bernanke's nomination hearing, debt de-leveraging in Dubai, weak service sector data, Treasury yields bouncing, employment worries or Bank of America's $19 Billion capital raise, there was a sharp sell off in the S&P E-Mini Futures and equity markets at the end of the day. The S&P is looking down at the 50 day moving average ($1,076) and is set to battle a rising wedge. All eyes will be on the employment report tomorrow for a catalyst.  Futures are up 0.14%.

TLT, GLD and Treasury Yields also had an interesting day today.  TLT (20+ T-Bond Prices) broke below the 50 and 200 day moving average and sold off at symmetrical triangle resistance.  $TYX (30 year bond yield) is just above the 50 and 200dma.  GLD is in a very steep rising channel so watch the RSI for a dip below 70 and a breach of channel support.  I want to see how everything reacts after the report.  I think a big catalyst is coming for Treasuries, equities or gold.  Could higher yields (inflation/growth) or lower yields (safe haven covering) choke off the gold and equity rally?  Perhaps gold sticks in the safe haven case.  Something has to give...  Watch the live chart to see what happens. **Update: 10:17am Eastern: Nov. jobless rate falls to 10 pct., 11K job cuts (AP).   TLT -1.31%, GLD -1.63% and SPY +1.41% (Treasuries and Gold gave for now, let the Yields/SPY war begin).

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Look Down From Top of Burj Dubai Spire, Helicopter Tour (Videos)

Amazing views from the top of the Burj Dubai Spire. The second video is on a helicopter tour. It is crazy.

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Google CEO Eric Schmidt on China, Mobile Ads, Android, News Corp, Video, Publishing Crisis and Cloud Computing (12/3)

Google CEO Eric Schmidt was interviewed on Bloomberg while he was at the White House Jobs Summit in Washington. He gets into China, mobile ads, Android, News Corp, how to get out of publishing crisis and video. Interesting interview. Go Google!

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Asian Carp Invasion Volatility Spikes in Chicago, Great Lakes (Video from WoodTV8)

Volatility for the fishing industry...  Video from WoodTV8 below.

• Single Asian carp found in Chicago-area fish kill (AP)
• States Cast for Way to Stop Carp (WSJ)
• Fish kill: Day 2 bighead found (Chicago Sun Times)
• Bighead Asian carp found in Chicago (WOODTV8)

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Huntsman (HUN) Call Options Active, Broke Above $10 Resistance, ISE Put/Call Most Actives, Implied Volatility (12/3/09)

Interesting day today for chemical company Huntsman ($HUN). It broke through $10 resistance on strong volume. I should have been watching this. Looking at the candle, it formed a tail of profit taking after the initial spike but still closed above $10 resistance at 10.26. If support holds, the next resistance level is around $14 and there is also a gap to fill (eventually). We'll see if the market rolls over here and drags $HUN around. Or it could be in play again but that I do not know.

Calls were active today. On the ISE widgie (sidebar), HUN had 8,851 customer calls opened and 201 puts, giving it an ISEE ratio of 4,403.  On the ISE, 58,000 options traded (majority calls) vs. the average of 3,700!  Implied volatility is at 69 and crossed above historical volatility 56.64.  IV was up 53% today.  Looking closer, both December and January had monster call volume. Remember 1 call gives the option to buy 100 shares at the strike price if the stock is in the money.  That's if they are fresh longs and not spreads or sellers.

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Bernanke Nomination Hearing Videos, Testimony, Articles (12/3/2009)

Here are full videos of the hearing on CSPAN, Bernanke's testimony script and related articles below.

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Jon Stewart On Dubai's Real Estate Crash, CNBC Clips From Dubai In 2007

Jon Stewart talked about the Dubai crisis and showed a clip of CNBCs Erin Burnett reporting from Dubai in 2007. Is there a Case Shiller index for Dubai?

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News: BofA Dilutes Stock To Pay TARP, Zandi On Housing, Rubber Futures, Sugar, Japan Capital Spending, VIX Ratio Risk Reversal, Dubai World, Hong Kong ETF and Asian Carp Invasion

Financial News Links for 12/2/2009

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Rosenberg: Gold to 2800 on Fiat Money Production Gap, Schiff: Gold To 5000 On Inflation Pressures, Grasso: Initial Superspike 1500-1800 On Inflation Then Pullback Coming

Gold is the sh*t these days as you can see....  Gold spot is at 1218 and Dvol & Co. reported the ultimate $1000 resistance break in October, or $100 on GLD (Gold ETF).  GLD is up 20% in 2 months and calls are making a killing.  There is no resistance in sight, so get ready for wild swings eventually IMO. Guy Adami talked about buying put protection or using trailing stops on gold a few days ago, doesn't hurt.

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Hussman: 80% Probability of Market Plunge Next Year, Stocks 40% Overvalued Based On q and CAPE Ratios (Cyclically Adjusted P/E)

From Hussman's November 30, 2009 Report: Reckless Myopia

"In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes' Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during the coming year. This is not certainty, but the evidence that we've observed in the equity market, labor market, and credit markets to-date is simply much more consistent with the recent advance being a component of a more drawn-out and painful deleveraging cycle."

"Currently, both q and CAPE are saying that the U.S. stock market is about 40% overvalued."

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SPY On ISE Most Actives: March 2010 $110, June $104 Puts With 44000 Traded On Each Strike

I noticed $SPY options action on the most actives list at the International Securities Exchange.  From the ISEE widget, 53000 puts/3000 calls were opened in the morning.  Is this an out of the money diagonal put time spread of some sort?   44,000 traded on the SPY March $110 with 11,400 open and 44,000 traded on the June $104 Puts with 71,000 open.  As you can see in the charts below, the June 104 put volume traded around $5.40 and the March 110 volume traded around $5.20.  $SPY just broke $111 as I'm typing.  We'll see wtf happens here. It is looking 3-6 months out in the next decade.

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News: Krugman's Double Dip, SocGen Albert Edwards, AIG Put Bet, Rosenberg on $2,600 Gold, Fed Governor Plosser on Liquidity, Greece CDS

• Double dip warning by Paul Krugman (New York Times)
• ‘Deep down, even the fiercest equity bulls must be doubting themselves’ (SocGen, FTalphaville)
• “Apocalypse” Puts Bet on Bad Things for AIG (Barron's Blog)
• Gold and Silver Soar as Bank of Japan Commits 10 Trillion Yen ($115 Billion) to Combat Deflation (Mish)
• Debt protection costs soar as markets eye shaky finances in Athens (BusinessDay)
• Nassim Taleb Swears He’s Done With This Place, Signs Off In A Huff.. (DealBreaker)
• Significant Risks to U.S. Bank Stocks Exist: Citigroup (Reuters)
• J.P. Morgan Says Banks Are Loading Up On Cash (WSJ)
• Rosenberg: Gold Going To $2600 Thanks To China (BusinessInsider)
• Fed's Plosser: Timely withdrawal of stimulus crucial (Reuters)

RBA Raises Cash Rate By 25 Basis Points To 3.75%, AUD/USD Down Initially, Yield Differentials, AUDJPY, AUDUSD Live Charts (12/1/2009)

 The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 0.25% to 3.75% on 12/1/2009.  Below is the statement by RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens.  AUD/USD traders initially sold the news, it is now at 91.45.  Below is the AUD/USD 1 minute chart.

[Courtesy of ProRealTime.com via FXStreet.com]

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Charting Out Credit Default Swap Indices [US High Yield, Global, Europe Crossover, 11/27/2009]

It is time to check out the CDR Indices (credit default swap indexes) again via Credit Derivatives Research. You can see updated charts of the CDR Government Risk Index, CDR Counterparty Risk Index, US Investment Grade, Global, US High Yield, Europe Investment Grade, Europe Crossover, Asia and Australia on their homepage. I charted out snapshots of the US High Yield (CDR Liquid 50 NAHY Index), Global (Composite of CDR Liquid Indices) and Europe Crossover (CDR Liquid 40 EUXO Index) CDS indices below courtesy of creditresearch.com.  They look to have broken, or at least pierced through the downtrend from the peak in Feb/March. Thoughts?

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Australian Dollar Future Pierced Uptrend On Dubai, Now Riding Support [ADZ9, Chart]

The Australian Dollar December Future (ADZ9) pierced through the 6 month uptrend on Dubai debt worries, but this morning it is now riding the uptrend by a thread.  Ride or die!  If it fails here again, timber....

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Why Didn't 'Med Grow Cannabis College' Buy The Pontiac Silverdome, Detroit Unemployment Rate 29.7%

It looks like medicinal bubonic chronic could provide a catalyst for job growth in Detroit.  The Detroit-Livonia-Warren, MI unemployment rate is at 17.5% with Detroit at 27.9%.

Detroit-Warren-Livonia Unemployment Rate Trend (St. Louis Fed)

Detroit Unemployment Rate Trend (BLS.gov)

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Sunday News: UAE Dubai Debt Bailout, Chavez Threatens Banks, Iran, Ireland, PSQR, CMBS, Hotel Sector, US Treasury, Mortgage Servicers

Distressed Volatility | Sunday Night News | 11/29/2009

Dubai Default Swaps Show No Distress on Abu Dhabi’s Bailouts (Bloomberg)
UAE to back banks amid Dubai meltdown (AP)
Global Insight: Dubai’s neighbours are wary (FT.com)
Switzerland Votes to Ban Minarets (WSJ)
Debt in the desert shows how we must not proceed (thepost.ie)
U.A.E. Central Bank Eases Credit After Dubai World Debt Delay  (Bloomberg)
The Geopolitics Of The Dubai Debt Crisis: It's Iran vs. The United States (BusinessInsider)
Chavez threatens to nationalize Venezuelan banks (AP)
Iran to Build 10 More Nuclear Sites, State News Agency Says (Bloomberg)
U.A.E. Removes Sunday London Times From Newsstands (WSJ)
China 2009 Gold Demand, Output May Gain to Records, Group Says  (Bloomberg)
Iran earmarks $20 million to "resist" West rights abuse (Reuters)
Iran and Venezuela sign 12 documents of cooperation (President.Ir)
Hotel owners, like home owners, behind on payments (AP)
UAE moves to counter Dubai fallout but markets wary (Reuters)
Abu Dhabi to aid Dubai on "case by case" basis (Reuters)
Treasury to meet with mortgage servicers Monday (Reuters)
PSQR Investor Report October 2009 (ZeroHedge.com)
Goldman Sachs Conviction List (SHIFTCtrlGroup)
Five CMBS Case Studies (ZeroHedge.com)
Abu Dhabi [Unlikely to Pay All Dubai's Debts/Graciously Assisting Sovereign Brother] (ZeroHedge)

and one more for good luck..

Japan Preparing To Launch Quantitative Easing; What Are Three Lost Decades Among Hyperdeflationary Friends (ZeroHedge)

Visit Understanding Dairy Products for Dairy Futures, Options, Forecasts, NASS Surveys (Milk, Cheese)

If you are interested in Dairy data you should visit Understanding Diary Products. You can find dairy prices here on different classes of milk, wholesale cheeses, NASS surveys etc, dairy futures, diary options, grain, livestock, hay etc. The site also provides diary outlooks and forecasts through reports by various Professors. You can also make custom graphs. Check it out folks. Go to http://future.aae.wisc.edu/

Posted by newsbysector.blogspot.com.

Peter Schiff, James Bullard, Alan Blinder Debate At Princeton's Business Today Event [Tech Ticker from 11/22]

Peter Schiff, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder argued at Princeton's Business Today event 11/22. Peter Schiff said "Ben Bernanke has never gotten anything right". Embedded from Tech Ticker. Go Austrian Econ!

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