Bernie Schaeffer Bullish On Equities, Gold Based On Sentiment Stages, 20 Month Moving Average. Short Term Resistance At Russell Retracement

Bernie Schaeffer of Schaeffers Research is a buyer here. He thinks we are going through a dis-belief phase and the rally in equities and gold will continue. He points out the 50% retracement level on the Russell 2000 acting as short term resistance and the sideways chop during the past month. In the second video Bernie breaks out specific sentiment and psychological indicators. He thinks we are halfway through the rally based on stages of sentiment and the break above the 20 month moving average.  It's interesting how Bernie Schaeffer contrasts with Robert Prechter (we are in for a very large decline in 2010).  Both are respectable views based on sentiment imo, but the chart wins in the end.

Watching XLE, oil technicals, XLE vs. oil volatility and the US Dollar. XLE and $WTIC broke below their 50dma's, $WTIC testing uptrend/floor support. Keep your scope on black gold. Overnight futures are up a tad. Emini S&P 1104.5 +0.07%, Emini Nasdaq 1784.5 +0.03%, Emini Dow 10405 +0.13%.

$NYB Action In Play On The Put Side! Fair Markets My Ass (NY Community Bancorp)

NYB is IN PLAY folks, in many different ways. Remember last Friday's NYB acquisition of AmTrust from the FDIC and the (alleged) insider trades reported by Zero Hedge? Now Reuters and Bloomberg are all over it. Interesting to say the least.

Today FBR Research upgraded NYB to Outperform with a $16 price target. NYB is up 8.68% today to $13.40. On my lonely ISE put/call widget to the right I saw that NYB puts were in play today w/ the ISEE Ratio: 10, PUTS: 10,239 and Calls: 1,021. The Options Intelligence Report sheds more light on this. There appeared to be put activity in the immediate term and call interest into 2010. Also "Fitch affirmed NYB's ratings on the AmTrust acquisition" (businesswire) and they offered 60 million shares today.  It was a DECENT ascending triangle play if nothing else.  Free markets my a$$! Whatever happened with those 3com calls?

Tim Sykes Talks Penny Stocking and Trading Styles With MissTrade TV

@MissTrade (aka Matt Davio, professional trader/market blogger/MissTradeTV) interviewed penny stock legend Tim Sykes. Tim talks about the penny stock game, his trading styles and how he started out. He also disses big media's coverage on penny stocks (including some 2pac'esqe disses).  Tim is up 142% this year (cash and equities) on Covestor. You can find the full interview at MissTrade.net as will as interviews with Karl Denninger (MarketTicker.org), Jon Najarian (OptionMonster), Fari Hamzei of Hamzei Analytics and Larry McMillan (option strategist).  Also watch MissTrade's Live UStream Trading Room.

Hotel, Auto, Credit Card, Jumbos, Small Biz and Alt-A Delinquencies (Links: 11/30-12/6/09)

Is high yield and $SPY right to be fading all of this?

  • TransUnion: US Auto-Loan-Delinquency Rates Up Further in 3Q (WSJ, 12/1)
  • US Credit-Card Delinquencies Near Record Highs In Oct - Fitch (WSJ, 12/2)
  • Illinois auto-loan delinquencies rise to 0.76 percent (medill.northwestern.edu)
  • Hotel mortgage delinquencies up five times (BloggingStocks, 11/30)
  • Delinquencies On Jumbo Mortgages Rise Further, Subprime Up (WSJ, 12/3)
  • This is good:  U.S. small business loans in arrears down: PayNet (Reuters, 12/1)
  • Recent-Vintage Alt-A RMBS Delinquency Rates Continue to Rise (ResearchRecap, 12/4)
  • Hotel Default Raises CMBS Delinquency, Trepp Says (HousingWire)
  • Delinquency ratio for Japanese RMBS rises (Structured Credit Investor)
  • Commercial property weighs on banks -Fed official (Reuters, 11/30)
  • CRE Bank-Loan Defaults hit 3.4%, CMBS Oct Delinquencies at 4.01%, (previouspost)

    Distressed Commercial Real Estate, CMBS Delinquencies, CPPI/TBI Price Indices, $IYR, $KRE


    "The Ghosts escape their prison" (Ghostbusters) via flixter.com

    Here is a collection of news, data and research on commercial real estate and CMBS including the CPPI (price index), TBI (transaction index), IYR/KRE charts and CMBX prices.

    Bloomberg 12/1/09: Commercial Mortgage Defaults at U.S. Banks Reach 3.4%
    "“Mortgages originated in 2006 and 2007 are experiencing the most significant shortfalls in current cash flow relative to current debt-service obligations,” Sam Chandan, chief economist of the firm, said in the report."

    Reuters 11/30/09: US commercial property loan defaults soar-reports
    "Commercial real estate bank-loan defaults hit 3.4 pct. Real Estate Econometrics sees the default rate for commercial real estate mortgages held by depository institutions hitting 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, about 5.2 percent by the end of 2010, and peaking at 5.3 percent in 2011."

    RealPoint CMBS ResearchMonthly Delinquency Report - Commentary, November 2009 (Pdf, charts)
    "In October 2009, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased slightly to $32.55 billion from $31.73 billion a month prior. Such delinquent unpaid balance is up an astounding 504% from one-year ago (when only $5.39 billion of delinquent balance was reported for October 2008), and is now over 14 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007. An increase in four of five delinquent loan categories was noted in September, with a decline experienced in the 60-day bucket. Despite such decline, the distressed 90+-day, Foreclosure and REO categories grew in aggregate for the 23rd straight month – up by $2.36 billion (12%) from the previous month and over $18.77 billion (572%) in the past year (up from only $3.283 billion in October 2008)."

    Clearwire 4G WiMax Not Everywhere Yet, Need Reliable 4G/3G Data Stick For Laptop For Best Price, Unlimited Data

    Drifting away from the finance theme at the moment.  I need the most reliable 4G/3G data stick for my laptop for unlimited data and the best monthly price.  I want the internet for a long voyage around the US by train.  The problem is 3G data plans are capped at 5Gs so you can use Sprint's unlimited 4G + 3G roll over plan.  As of today Clear has an unlimited data/4G deal out for $30/month for the first 6 months, then switches to $45. They say: "Typical download speeds are 3-6 mbps with bursts over 10 Mbps".  Clear's 4G WiMax coverage area is limited to big cities at the moment.  Does 3G access even work well in rural areas?  There seems to be a tower shortage, long towers.  Most recent Google News search:

    Zero Hedge Catches Trades in New York Community Bancorp NYB and Options Pre-AmTrust Acquisition via FDIC

    Nice work over at ZeroHedge/SEC.  They saw price and call option action in NYB pre-acquisition of failed Amherst Bank via FDIC today.

    "Mary Schapiro Must Immediately Investigate The FDIC's Confidential Information Leak In Another Blatant Insider Trading Case, Then Resign (Link:  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mary-schapiro-must-immediately-investigate-fdics-confidential-information-leak-another-blata)."

    $USDX, Dollar Rallies Hard On Jobs Catalyst, Pierces Downtrend, Moving Average and Set To Battle $76 Resistance [US Dollar Index Charts, TLT Mention]

    12/4/09:  The US Dollar (DXY) rallied HARD today with the better than expected jobs data. Check out the short and long term DXY charts.  Dvol & Co. has been writing about this downtrend and options activity for the past 90,000 days.  Use the search bar or click UUP or US Dollar for the most recent google search results.  Is the 50 day moving average test DIFFERENT this time?  I've been waiting for a catalyst that would break this trend.  As you can see, US:DXY broke a downtrend from November and pierced through the long term downtrend from March and 50 day moving average.

    DXY is on fire, up 1.6%, 30Y T-bond yields are up ($TYX) is up 1.93% yielding 4.41% which is beheading GLD, down -5% and taking gains away from the S&P.  Finally an interesting day but it is still a mind f--- because it could be that good news is now bad news which rallies yields and the Dollar and corrects commodities and the markets.  Or growth is so strong that the rising cost of capital + top/bottom line earnings absorb valuations.  It will be interesting to see what happens.  Yields and the S&P rallied together after the March lows given that Treasuries hit capitulative highs and markets hit capitulative lows.  Now things are different, the S&P is up 60% and Treasuries are being squashed in a wedge.  Fyi, TLTs 50 and 200dma are at par with price action below both levels now.  Both might act as resistance going forward.  Here are US Dollar Index Charts (Year, 6 mo) courtesy of Stockcharts.com.

    Text from chart.  $76 ceiling break is a must for a hedged squeeze play imo.  $76 also hits a minor downtrend resistance level from September.  If you read my posts during the past month there has been massive call interest in $UUP possibly positioning for a squeeze (like today) and/or hedging their short books.  If traders take profits it could chop around 75-76 before deciding it's ultimate fate.  It is a tough downtrend to battle if you are inclined to do so, bring your teflon vest.  Lows from 2008 aren't that far away...


    Sergey Brin Guest at Search Engine Class (UCBerkeley, 2005), Anatomy of a Large-Scale Web Search Engine (Link)

    This is interesting. "SIMS 141 - Search, Google, and Life: Sergey Brin - Google" (October 2005). Sergey talks about page rank, innovative algorithms, how Google started out and more. He also does a Q&A session. Also check this out: The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine by Sergey Brin and Lawrence Page, Computer Science Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305".

    Sports Illustrated Touch Screen Tablet Demo, Will They Save Print Media?

    Will the interactive tablet save print media? You buy a touch screen tablet and subscribe to magazines and newspapers, correct? Sounds like an interesting plan. Make it 3D.

    $SPY Chart Technical Analysis: 50, 61.8% Retracements, Downtrend, Ceiling Resistance and Ultimate Wedge [Place Your Market Bets, 12/4/09]

    December 4, 2009: As I've mentioned before, SPY is up against some important technical levels at the moment. It is hitting downtrend resistance from the 2007 highs and the 50% retracement level. If Tom Lee of JP Morgan is right that we see high 1100s on the S&P before year end, the 61.8% retracement/2006 ceiling resistance/pre-Lehman levels could be in the cards. The last time we saw a real correction was in July, when sellers overtook buyers at minor downtrend resistance (from May highs). $SPY is currently in the vertex of the ultimate wedge as you can see. Watch for a decisive move soon.  Look at this long term technical beauty from FreeStockCharts.com. I also provided a live chart below so you can see what happens (requires a plug in I believe).



    Catalyst Watch For S&P, SPY, TLT, GLD and Treasury Yields [12/4/09]

    Whether it was Bernanke's nomination hearing, debt de-leveraging in Dubai, weak service sector data, Treasury yields bouncing, employment worries or Bank of America's $19 Billion capital raise, there was a sharp sell off in the S&P E-Mini Futures and equity markets at the end of the day. The S&P is looking down at the 50 day moving average ($1,076) and is set to battle a rising wedge. All eyes will be on the employment report tomorrow for a catalyst.  Futures are up 0.14%.

    TLT, GLD and Treasury Yields also had an interesting day today.  TLT (20+ T-Bond Prices) broke below the 50 and 200 day moving average and sold off at symmetrical triangle resistance.  $TYX (30 year bond yield) is just above the 50 and 200dma.  GLD is in a very steep rising channel so watch the RSI for a dip below 70 and a breach of channel support.  I want to see how everything reacts after the report.  I think a big catalyst is coming for Treasuries, equities or gold.  Could higher yields (inflation/growth) or lower yields (safe haven covering) choke off the gold and equity rally?  Perhaps gold sticks in the safe haven case.  Something has to give...  Watch the live chart to see what happens. **Update: 10:17am Eastern: Nov. jobless rate falls to 10 pct., 11K job cuts (AP).   TLT -1.31%, GLD -1.63% and SPY +1.41% (Treasuries and Gold gave for now, let the Yields/SPY war begin).

    Look Down From Top of Burj Dubai Spire, Helicopter Tour (Videos)

    Amazing views from the top of the Burj Dubai Spire. The second video is on a helicopter tour. It is crazy.

    Google CEO Eric Schmidt on China, Mobile Ads, Android, News Corp, Video, Publishing Crisis and Cloud Computing (12/3)

    Google CEO Eric Schmidt was interviewed on Bloomberg while he was at the White House Jobs Summit in Washington. He gets into China, mobile ads, Android, News Corp, how to get out of publishing crisis and video. Interesting interview. Go Google!

    Asian Carp Invasion Volatility Spikes in Chicago, Great Lakes (Video from WoodTV8)

    Volatility for the fishing industry...  Video from WoodTV8 below.
    • Single Asian carp found in Chicago-area fish kill (AP)
    • States Cast for Way to Stop Carp (WSJ)
    • Fish kill: Day 2 bighead found (Chicago Sun Times)
    • Bighead Asian carp found in Chicago (WOODTV8)

    Huntsman (HUN) Call Options Active, Broke Above $10 Resistance, ISE Put/Call Most Actives, Implied Volatility (12/3/09)

    Interesting day today for chemical company Huntsman ($HUN). It broke through $10 resistance on strong volume. I should have been watching this. Looking at the candle, it formed a tail of profit taking after the initial spike but still closed above $10 resistance at 10.26. If support holds, the next resistance level is around $14 and there is also a gap to fill (eventually). We'll see if the market rolls over here and drags $HUN around. Or it could be in play again but that I do not know.

    Calls were active today. On the ISE widgie (sidebar), HUN had 8,851 customer calls opened and 201 puts, giving it an ISEE ratio of 4,403.  On the ISE, 58,000 options traded (majority calls) vs. the average of 3,700!  Implied volatility is at 69 and crossed above historical volatility 56.64.  IV was up 53% today.  Looking closer, both December and January had monster call volume. Remember 1 call gives the option to buy 100 shares at the strike price if the stock is in the money.  That's if they are fresh longs and not spreads or sellers.

    Bernanke Nomination Hearing Videos, Testimony, Articles (12/3/2009)

    Here are full videos of the hearing on CSPAN, Bernanke's testimony script and related articles below.

    Jon Stewart On Dubai's Real Estate Crash, CNBC Clips From Dubai In 2007

    Jon Stewart talked about the Dubai crisis and showed a clip of CNBCs Erin Burnett reporting from Dubai in 2007. Is there a Case Shiller index for Dubai?

    News: BofA Dilutes Stock To Pay TARP, Zandi On Housing, Rubber Futures, Sugar, Japan Capital Spending, VIX Ratio Risk Reversal, Dubai World, Hong Kong ETF and Asian Carp Invasion

    Financial News Links for 12/2/2009

    Rosenberg: Gold to 2800 on Fiat Money Production Gap, Schiff: Gold To 5000 On Inflation Pressures, Grasso: Initial Superspike 1500-1800 On Inflation Then Pullback Coming

    Gold is the sh*t these days as you can see....  Gold spot is at 1218 and Dvol & Co. reported the ultimate $1000 resistance break in October, or $100 on GLD (Gold ETF).  GLD is up 20% in 2 months and calls are making a killing.  There is no resistance in sight, so get ready for wild swings eventually IMO. Guy Adami talked about buying put protection or using trailing stops on gold a few days ago, doesn't hurt.

    Hussman: 80% Probability of Market Plunge Next Year, Stocks 40% Overvalued Based On q and CAPE Ratios (Cyclically Adjusted P/E)

    From Hussman's November 30, 2009 Report: Reckless Myopia

    "In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes' Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during the coming year. This is not certainty, but the evidence that we've observed in the equity market, labor market, and credit markets to-date is simply much more consistent with the recent advance being a component of a more drawn-out and painful deleveraging cycle."

    "Currently, both q and CAPE are saying that the U.S. stock market is about 40% overvalued."

    SPY On ISE Most Actives: March 2010 $110, June $104 Puts With 44000 Traded On Each Strike

    I noticed $SPY options action on the most actives list at the International Securities Exchange.  From the ISEE widget, 53000 puts/3000 calls were opened in the morning.  Is this an out of the money diagonal put time spread of some sort?   44,000 traded on the SPY March $110 with 11,400 open and 44,000 traded on the June $104 Puts with 71,000 open.  As you can see in the charts below, the June 104 put volume traded around $5.40 and the March 110 volume traded around $5.20.  $SPY just broke $111 as I'm typing.  We'll see wtf happens here. It is looking 3-6 months out in the next decade.

    News: Krugman's Double Dip, SocGen Albert Edwards, AIG Put Bet, Rosenberg on $2,600 Gold, Fed Governor Plosser on Liquidity, Greece CDS

    • Double dip warning by Paul Krugman (New York Times)
    • ‘Deep down, even the fiercest equity bulls must be doubting themselves’ (SocGen, FTalphaville)
    • “Apocalypse” Puts Bet on Bad Things for AIG (Barron's Blog)
    • Gold and Silver Soar as Bank of Japan Commits 10 Trillion Yen ($115 Billion) to Combat Deflation (Mish)
    • Debt protection costs soar as markets eye shaky finances in Athens (BusinessDay)
    • Nassim Taleb Swears He’s Done With This Place, Signs Off In A Huff.. (DealBreaker)
    • Significant Risks to U.S. Bank Stocks Exist: Citigroup (Reuters)
    • J.P. Morgan Says Banks Are Loading Up On Cash (WSJ)
    • Rosenberg: Gold Going To $2600 Thanks To China (BusinessInsider)
    • Fed's Plosser: Timely withdrawal of stimulus crucial (Reuters)