Jim Rogers was on Tech Ticker and ReutersTV (Reuters: Investor bets on USD rally) recently and he's betting on a US Dollar short squeeze. He also said commodities will do well if there's massive growth, a currency crisis, continued money printing or WW3. He told Reuters he'd buy more gold around $1,000.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Friday, December 11, 2009
FDIC Commercial Real Estate Loan Workouts Seminar (Audio)
I found this presentation interesting on FDIC's youtube site. Also we hit 133 bank failures today, wow.
"The federal financial institution regulatory agencies hosted a free interagency telephone seminar on the Policy Statement on Prudent Commercial Real Estate Loan Workouts (Workout Guidance) on Thursday, December 3, 2009. Audio only."
Doug Kass At Highest Net Short Position All Year, Provides Long Ideas
Doug Kass tweeted on December 10 that he's at his "highest net short position all year. My signal is the weakening financials" (tweet). He also tweeted that the weak Treasury auction could place "continued pressure on reits, banks and other financials" (tweet) and his "favorite short is IYR" (tweet). Tweet Tweet. Follow @DougKass. *Kass was interviewed in Barron's today: Skeptical That Growth Will Take Root, Kass' Picks and Pans... (firm/Seabreeze Partners Management).
Recent articles by Doug Kass on TheStreet.com:
Kass: A Couple of Concerns (12/9/09)
Favorite Long and Short (RealMoney Silver)
Back Shorting Retail (RealMoney Silver)
Awful Treasury Auction (RealMoney Silver)
Recent articles by Doug Kass on TheStreet.com:
Kass: A Couple of Concerns (12/9/09)
Favorite Long and Short (RealMoney Silver)
Back Shorting Retail (RealMoney Silver)
Awful Treasury Auction (RealMoney Silver)
Dubai Equity Index is Testing March 2009 Lows (Chart, 12/11/2009)
Check out the 1 year "Dubai Financial Market General Index" chart. It is testing the February/March 2009 lows. Why? Search Dubai on my blog or click the label. Sovereign debt and muni debt might need some help from a printing press. Who else will be lucky enough to test their March lows?
$SPY One Month Move Unchanged, You Should've Gone To Barbados (Charts)
$SPY is unchanged on the month. To move higher $SPY needs to break above 112 or below $109 for a breakdown. You all should've gone to Barbados. Here is the one month hourly static and live java chart from freestockcharts.com and some old school calypso tunes.
IWM Put Action on ISE Most Actives, Also SPY Dec 2010 Hedge (Chart)
I saw that $IWM was on the ISE's most active PUT list today. I found it on the ISE Put/Call widget on the side of my blog. It showed that ISE customers opened 21,701 PUTS vs. 1,600 CALLS (13.6 puts/calls). There was also big put volume in general today. Regarding the chart, IWM is testing the 50dma.
Dec 60 put 35,142 w/97,193 open
Dec 61 put 12,883 w/11,458 open
Jan 57 put 18,027 w/86,404 open
Feb 55 put 15,024 w/3,294 open
Jun 58 put 6,010 w/23,022 open
Jun 46 put 13,000 w/33 open (spread?)
Dec 60 put 35,142 w/97,193 open
Dec 61 put 12,883 w/11,458 open
Jan 57 put 18,027 w/86,404 open
Feb 55 put 15,024 w/3,294 open
Jun 58 put 6,010 w/23,022 open
Jun 46 put 13,000 w/33 open (spread?)
David Rosenberg 2010 Outlook, Predicts Higher VIX Next Year (Audio Interview)
David Rosenberg released his 2010 outlook. Here is the second paragraph.
"In addition, we have characterized the rally in the economy and global equity markets appropriately as a bear market rally from the March lows, influenced by the heavy hand of government intervention and stimulus. But in classic Bob Farrell form, 2010 may well be seen as the year in which we witness the inevitable drawn out decline that is typical of secular bear markets."
Read his full 2010 outlook "Gluskin Sheff's "Breakfast With Dave" at The Business Insider.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Branson's Virgin Galactic Will Take You To Space In 2 Years for $200,000
Richard Branson created a commercial space aircraft on Virgin Galactic. Below is a video from Aljazeera and a Virgin Galactic introduction video. I'm down...
30-Year Auction Boosts Yields, TLT Weak, Yield Curve Steep, 3 Month Bills at 0.25% ($TYX, $IRX, TLT)
The 30 Year auction today is moving 30 Year Treasury yields higher (bonds lower) and the yield curve is very steep (2s-30s via Zero Hedge). The 30-Year Treasury Yield is at 4.492% and 3 Month T-Bills are yielding 0.25%. Lend it out banks! Markets are up with higher long term yields and steep curve (less Gov interventions, that would mean growth and inflation long term if the trend sticks, imho). So what is going to give, the short end or equities? IRX, TYX and TLT charts below.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
House Extends Tax Breaks, Squeezes Investment Fund Manager Income
Interesting political news just hit. The House just passed the Tax Extenders Act of 2009 (full text) which extends individual and business tax breaks for another year. To finance this they are taxing investment fund manager gains as ordinary income instead of investment income (35% vs. 15%). For example a hedge fund may charge 2% of assets and 20% of investment gains annually. The gains would now be taxed as a service instead of investment income. I'm wondering how the billi hedge fund managers will react to this. Perhaps it is fair but is this the right time to do this, when we desperately need the allocators of capital to invest/hire/turn around the economy? This also affects private equity and real estate partnerships if I'm not mistaken. It is headed to the Senate. Here is selected text from the bill.
DRYS Charts, Analysis, News Updates On Google Wave
I'm starting up a continuous Google Wave for DRYS (Dryships) analysis. Here's why.... First check out the symmetrical triangle inflection point.
It is just the preview version for now but it's a start. So here are a few DRYS charts I'm looking at on a yearly and weekly basis. In order to see this wave you need a Google Wave account. If anything it will be a new way to present price action/information/research/news links without repetitive blog posts. Here are snapshots of the $DRYS wave. Inflecting at the $6, symmetrical triangle inflection point under 50/200dma.
It is just the preview version for now but it's a start. So here are a few DRYS charts I'm looking at on a yearly and weekly basis. In order to see this wave you need a Google Wave account. If anything it will be a new way to present price action/information/research/news links without repetitive blog posts. Here are snapshots of the $DRYS wave. Inflecting at the $6, symmetrical triangle inflection point under 50/200dma.
Stephen Colbert On The Fed, Senator Sanders (Colbert Report Video, CSPAN)
Stephen Colbert for President... Since he had Senator Sanders on his show I also provided a video of Sanders on the Fed.
Geithner Letter: Extends TARP to 2010, Talks Exit Strategy (Full Text, Video)
When does our dividend check come in the mail from the equity/warrant investments?
"December 9, 2009
TG-433
Treasury Department Releases Text of Letter from Secretary Geithner
to Hill Leadership on Administration’s Exit Strategy for TARP
WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of the Treasury released the text of identical letters sent today from Secretary Tim Geithner to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Harry Reid outlining the Administration's exit strategy for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) established by the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA). The text of the letter to Speaker Pelosi follows.
December 9, 2009
The Honorable Nancy Pelosi
Speaker
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515
Dear Madam Speaker:
I am writing to update you on the status of the Obama Administration's financial policies, including programs initiated under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) established by the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA), the results they have achieved, the challenges ahead, and our plan for exiting TARP.
Meredith Whitney: Consumer Not Better, Market Overextended, States Underfunded (Squawk Box)
Analyst Meredith Whitney was on CNBC's Squawk Box today with strong opinions. She's confident that the overall market is overextended and the consumer will drag on the S&P. Is it time to wax up a surf board for Wave C?
She also said core loan books are down and States are underfunded. Next year will be interesting.
"The Government's been providing so much of the flow in capital markets in terms of buying agency paper, supporting the housing market and as bold as this is to say, I think they are out of bullets. If it's not this quarter it is certainly the first quarter where the sand really hit's the fan, and the underlying earnings power starts to show that it's not where people expected it to be"
"70% of the US economy is driven by the consumer. I have 100% conviction that the consumer is not getting better and there's not more liquidity. So if everything that touches the consumer is going to be represented in the S&P, the S&P is going to be under pressure. Next year there is no place to go."
"Stocks don't go up when estimates are coming down, and they will come down."
She also said core loan books are down and States are underfunded. Next year will be interesting.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Find Independent Small Business Data Trends at NFIB
Go to nfib.com for small business data trends available to the public. Their website is nfib.com.
Go to: National Federation of Independent Business
Posted by newsbysector.blogspot.com
"The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since 1974 and monthly surveys since 1986. The sample is drawn from the membership files of NFIB. The report is released the second Tuesday of each month."
Go to: National Federation of Independent Business
Posted by newsbysector.blogspot.com
Bernanke Speech at Economic Club of Washington DC, Q&A Video
Here is Bernanke's recent speech at the Economic Club of Washington DC with the speech and Q&A video below.
Bernanke on interest rates: "WELL, THEY CANNOT GO MUCH FURTHER DOWN. [LAUGHTER] [LAUGHTER] OK. [LAUGHTER] OBVIOUSLY, THE COMMITTEE..."
"Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
At the Economic Club of Washington D.C., Washington D.C.
December 7, 2009
Frequently Asked Questions
It is a pleasure to speak once again before the Economic Club of Washington. Having faced the most serious financial crisis and the worst recession since the Great Depression, our economy has made important progress during the past year. Although the economic stress faced by many families and businesses remains intense, with job openings scarce and credit still hard to come by, the financial system and the economy have moved back from the brink of collapse, economic growth has returned, and the signs of recovery have become more widespread.
Understandably, in a situation as complicated as this one, people have many questions about the current situation and the path forward. Accordingly, taking inspiration from the ubiquitous frequently-asked-questions lists, or FAQs, on Internet websites, in my remarks today I'd like to address four important FAQs about the economy and the Federal Reserve. They are:
- Where is the economy headed?
- What has the Federal Reserve been doing to support the economy and the financial system?
- Will the Federal Reserve's actions lead to higher inflation down the road?
- How can we avoid a similar crisis in the future" (read full speech at federalreserve.gov)
Bernanke on interest rates: "WELL, THEY CANNOT GO MUCH FURTHER DOWN. [LAUGHTER] [LAUGHTER] OK. [LAUGHTER] OBVIOUSLY, THE COMMITTEE..."
John Paulson Has Highest Net Long Exposure Ever (BAC, CMCSA, HEIG)
John Paulson speaks... He sees compelling investments on the equity side, none on the short side in credit (likes Gov involved GMAC debt over Treasuries) and is concerned about inflation (re: gold). So in a sense he likes high yield Government debt and equities (bac, cmcsa, heig). Simple hedged macro call. Here is Paulson & Co's 3Q holdings and investment letter if you are interested.
""Today our net long exposure is perhaps the highest it has ever been in our portfolio," Paulson said during a luncheon presentation at the Japan Society"... "we don't have any shorts in credit", he said." read the full article at Reuters.Hat tip Business Insider
$USD/CAD Challenging August Downtrend On Bank of Canada Announcement, Commodities and Technicals
I'm watching USD/CAD because of the Bank of Canada announcement that "interest rates would remain at 0.25 percent until June 2010 and that it was still concerned about the strength of the currency and its possible negative affect on exports" (ForexHound), chart technicals and commodity weakness (focused on oil, xlf on last post). On the chart $USD/CAD is challenging the downtrend that commenced in August. It already broke through the downtrend formed from the March highs. I have questions for the professional geometrical chart technologists. How will CAD break the symmetrical triangle and is there a descending triangle forming using 2008 support? Moves take longer now given the decreased volatility but I'll keep observing. Speaking of FX options, CDD (ISE FX Canadian Dollar USD/CAD pair) has an implied volatility of 14.11 and historical of 15.22 (hit highs of 25). Below I provided a live and static USD/CAD chart w/ trends plus articles and the Bank of Canada statement (12/8/09).
Oil, XLE, Dollar Technical Update Plus $OVX vs. $XLE Volatilities (Charts)
First look at XLE (energy ETF) volatility vs. $OVX (crude oil volatility). The Oil VIX moved up with the Gold VIX recently while XLE hasn't really budged (the XLE implied volatility chart is from yesterday's close I believe). Makes sense given that it's equity vs. underlying commodity but they are both wrecking technical levels. I don't follow these vol's every day but it s an interesting comparable. XLE is down 1.49% today and January Oil is down 1.58%. XLE broke below the 50 day moving average and a minor uptrend channel and could test the June highs/major uptrend support around $53. The 200dma at $50.3 is not too far off (would get there if it broke that uptrend from March imo).
Oil on the other hand pierced through (as of right now 1:06e) a symmetrical triangle and broke below summer support (was an ascending triangle before). If oil loses control here, next support hits around $65+/- and $70 looks crowded. It should be known that this is for the January oil contract. When looking at oil in Feburary it is still TESTING the uptrend and is a couple bucks higher. Watch that month as well. This all could be part of a normal correction given that volatility is still relatively low compared to last year, but the chart will tell me what's up. To my foreign readers: 享受圖, يتمتع الخرائط, magtatamasa ng mga chart, карыстацца charts, disfrutar de las cartas, ליהנות תרשימים, グラフを楽しむ and अच्छा दोपहर, शाम और अच्छा शुभ रात्रि.
Oil on the other hand pierced through (as of right now 1:06e) a symmetrical triangle and broke below summer support (was an ascending triangle before). If oil loses control here, next support hits around $65+/- and $70 looks crowded. It should be known that this is for the January oil contract. When looking at oil in Feburary it is still TESTING the uptrend and is a couple bucks higher. Watch that month as well. This all could be part of a normal correction given that volatility is still relatively low compared to last year, but the chart will tell me what's up. To my foreign readers: 享受圖, يتمتع الخرائط, magtatamasa ng mga chart, карыстацца charts, disfrutar de las cartas, ליהנות תרשימים, グラフを楽しむ and अच्छा दोपहर, शाम और अच्छा शुभ रात्रि.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Bernie Schaeffer Bullish On Equities, Gold Based On Sentiment Stages, 20 Month Moving Average. Short Term Resistance At Russell Retracement
Bernie Schaeffer of Schaeffers Research is a buyer here. He thinks we are going through a dis-belief phase and the rally in equities and gold will continue. He points out the 50% retracement level on the Russell 2000 acting as short term resistance and the sideways chop during the past month. In the second video Bernie breaks out specific sentiment and psychological indicators. He thinks we are halfway through the rally based on stages of sentiment and the break above the 20 month moving average. It's interesting how Bernie Schaeffer contrasts with Robert Prechter (we are in for a very large decline in 2010). Both are respectable views based on sentiment imo, but the chart wins in the end.
Watching XLE, oil technicals, XLE vs. oil volatility and the US Dollar. XLE and $WTIC broke below their 50dma's, $WTIC testing uptrend/floor support. Keep your scope on black gold. Overnight futures are up a tad. Emini S&P 1104.5 +0.07%, Emini Nasdaq 1784.5 +0.03%, Emini Dow 10405 +0.13%.
Watching XLE, oil technicals, XLE vs. oil volatility and the US Dollar. XLE and $WTIC broke below their 50dma's, $WTIC testing uptrend/floor support. Keep your scope on black gold. Overnight futures are up a tad. Emini S&P 1104.5 +0.07%, Emini Nasdaq 1784.5 +0.03%, Emini Dow 10405 +0.13%.
Visit PayNet For Small Business News, Proprietary Credit History Data
If you want credit information on small businesses visit PayNet.
Visit PayNet's news section for updates on small business data. Most recent:
Exclusive: U.S. small business loans in arrears down: PayNet (12/1/09, Reuters)
EXCLUSIVE: Smallest U.S. businesses borrowing again: PayNet (11/23/09, Reuters)
Posted from newsbysector.blogspot.com.
"The company's proprietary database, updated weekly, is the richest and largest collection of commercial loans and leases, encompassing more than 16.5 million current and historic contracts worth over $700 billion. (PayNet)"
Visit PayNet's news section for updates on small business data. Most recent:
Exclusive: U.S. small business loans in arrears down: PayNet (12/1/09, Reuters)
EXCLUSIVE: Smallest U.S. businesses borrowing again: PayNet (11/23/09, Reuters)
Posted from newsbysector.blogspot.com.
$NYB Action In Play On The Put Side! Fair Markets My Ass (NY Community Bancorp)
NYB is IN PLAY folks, in many different ways. Remember last Friday's NYB acquisition of AmTrust from the FDIC and the (alleged) insider trades reported by Zero Hedge? Now Reuters and Bloomberg are all over it. Interesting to say the least.
Today FBR Research upgraded NYB to Outperform with a $16 price target. NYB is up 8.68% today to $13.40. On my lonely ISE put/call widget to the right I saw that NYB puts were in play today w/ the ISEE Ratio: 10, PUTS: 10,239 and Calls: 1,021. The Options Intelligence Report sheds more light on this. There appeared to be put activity in the immediate term and call interest into 2010. Also "Fitch affirmed NYB's ratings on the AmTrust acquisition" (businesswire) and they offered 60 million shares today. It was a DECENT ascending triangle play if nothing else. Free markets my a$$! Whatever happened with those 3com calls?
Today FBR Research upgraded NYB to Outperform with a $16 price target. NYB is up 8.68% today to $13.40. On my lonely ISE put/call widget to the right I saw that NYB puts were in play today w/ the ISEE Ratio: 10, PUTS: 10,239 and Calls: 1,021. The Options Intelligence Report sheds more light on this. There appeared to be put activity in the immediate term and call interest into 2010. Also "Fitch affirmed NYB's ratings on the AmTrust acquisition" (businesswire) and they offered 60 million shares today. It was a DECENT ascending triangle play if nothing else. Free markets my a$$! Whatever happened with those 3com calls?
Tim Sykes Talks Penny Stocking and Trading Styles With MissTrade TV
@MissTrade (aka Matt Davio, professional trader/market blogger/MissTradeTV) interviewed penny stock legend Tim Sykes. Tim talks about the penny stock game, his trading styles and how he started out. He also disses big media's coverage on penny stocks (including some 2pac'esqe disses). Tim is up 142% this year (cash and equities) on Covestor. You can find the full interview at MissTrade.net as will as interviews with Karl Denninger (MarketTicker.org), Jon Najarian (OptionMonster), Fari Hamzei of Hamzei Analytics and Larry McMillan (option strategist). Also watch MissTrade's Live UStream Trading Room.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Hotel, Auto, Credit Card, Jumbos, Small Biz and Alt-A Delinquencies (Links: 11/30-12/6/09)
Is high yield and $SPY right to be fading all of this?
- TransUnion: US Auto-Loan-Delinquency Rates Up Further in 3Q (WSJ, 12/1)
- US Credit-Card Delinquencies Near Record Highs In Oct - Fitch (WSJ, 12/2)
- Illinois auto-loan delinquencies rise to 0.76 percent (medill.northwestern.edu)
- Hotel mortgage delinquencies up five times (BloggingStocks, 11/30)
- Delinquencies On Jumbo Mortgages Rise Further, Subprime Up (WSJ, 12/3)
- This is good: U.S. small business loans in arrears down: PayNet (Reuters, 12/1)
- Recent-Vintage Alt-A RMBS Delinquency Rates Continue to Rise (ResearchRecap, 12/4)
- Hotel Default Raises CMBS Delinquency, Trepp Says (HousingWire)
- Delinquency ratio for Japanese RMBS rises (Structured Credit Investor)
- Commercial property weighs on banks -Fed official (Reuters, 11/30)
- CRE Bank-Loan Defaults hit 3.4%, CMBS Oct Delinquencies at 4.01%, (previouspost)
Distressed Commercial Real Estate, CMBS Delinquencies, CPPI/TBI Price Indices, $IYR, $KRE
Here is a collection of news, data and research on commercial real estate and CMBS including the CPPI (price index), TBI (transaction index), IYR/KRE charts and CMBX prices.
Bloomberg 12/1/09: Commercial Mortgage Defaults at U.S. Banks Reach 3.4%
"“Mortgages originated in 2006 and 2007 are experiencing the most significant shortfalls in current cash flow relative to current debt-service obligations,” Sam Chandan, chief economist of the firm, said in the report."
Reuters 11/30/09: US commercial property loan defaults soar-reports
"Commercial real estate bank-loan defaults hit 3.4 pct. Real Estate Econometrics sees the default rate for commercial real estate mortgages held by depository institutions hitting 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, about 5.2 percent by the end of 2010, and peaking at 5.3 percent in 2011."
RealPoint CMBS Research: Monthly Delinquency Report - Commentary, November 2009 (Pdf, charts)
"In October 2009, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased slightly to $32.55 billion from $31.73 billion a month prior. Such delinquent unpaid balance is up an astounding 504% from one-year ago (when only $5.39 billion of delinquent balance was reported for October 2008), and is now over 14 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007. An increase in four of five delinquent loan categories was noted in September, with a decline experienced in the 60-day bucket. Despite such decline, the distressed 90+-day, Foreclosure and REO categories grew in aggregate for the 23rd straight month – up by $2.36 billion (12%) from the previous month and over $18.77 billion (572%) in the past year (up from only $3.283 billion in October 2008)."
Clearwire 4G WiMax Not Everywhere Yet, Need Reliable 4G/3G Data Stick For Laptop For Best Price, Unlimited Data
Drifting away from the finance theme at the moment. I need the most reliable 4G/3G data stick for my laptop for unlimited data and the best monthly price. I want the internet for a long voyage around the US by train. The problem is 3G data plans are capped at 5Gs so you can use Sprint's unlimited 4G + 3G roll over plan. As of today Clear has an unlimited data/4G deal out for $30/month for the first 6 months, then switches to $45. They say: "Typical download speeds are 3-6 mbps with bursts over 10 Mbps". Clear's 4G WiMax coverage area is limited to big cities at the moment. Does 3G access even work well in rural areas? There seems to be a tower shortage, long towers. Most recent Google News search:
