Chicago Housing Market Bottoms In 2013? S&P/Case Shiller Index, Foreclosures and Futures (Video/Home Price Chart)

This continues from my previous posts on the Chicago CTA, Illinois financials and 2010 commercial real estate outlook. I found a Chicago housing article at Crain's Chicago (video below). Burns Real Estate Consulting and Fiserv said the Chicago housing recovery was years away, perhaps 2013, as underwater mortgages, the tight lending environment, high price/income ratio, foreclosures and high unemployment put pressure on upside momentum.


I charted out Chicago's S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index for November, 2009 (released in January, 2010) below. It is down 2.07% from the September Peak but 5.7% above the April low (APR: 122.30 SEP: 132.13, NOV: 129.39). Do we retest March levels in a double dip scenario? Remember that option ARM resets are looming (Option ARMs Surpass Subprime Mortgages in Loss Severity - HousingWire). Find the chart that hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson used in his housing presentation. He was bearish on housing in November, 2009 (video link). Foreclosures for Q4, 2009 in Chicago hit the highest level since 2005 according to the Woodstock Institute:
"New foreclosure filings in the Chicago six county region rose 21 percent from 2008 to 2009 despite federal, state, and local programs designed to curb the foreclosure crisis, says a new Woodstock Institute report. During the fourth quarter of 2009, the region saw 24,053 new foreclosure filings—the highest quarterly number observed since 2005." (read full post at Woodstock).

You know what else is interesting folks? You can trade Chicago-Case Shiller Index Futures. Or at least monitor them. You can watch contracts trade at CMEGroup Datasuite but I don't see any charts. For a better place with charts go to INO.com (link: Chicago S&P/Case Shiller futures curve). I'm not that familiar with the daily activity (or if it signals much) but here are current closing prices.
FEBRUARY 2010: 128.8
MAY: 130
AUGUST: 125.4
NOVEMBER: 128
FEBRUARY 2011: 123
MAY: 121.4
NOVEMBER: 127
MAY 2012: 130


Source: S&P/Case Shiller Index


Article about Chicago real estate from appraiser/sell side perspective: Has your area stabilized? (SearchChicago.Suntimes). I'm trying to find a Chicago price/rent ratio, I tried Calculated Risk.

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