S&P Under 50DMA, TLT and 30-Year Yield At Make Or Break Point (SPX, SPY, TLT, TYX)

While the S&P camps out below the 50 day moving average and potentially forms a right shoulder (we'll see), the 20+ Treasury bond ETF ($TLT) and 30-Year Treasury Yield ($TYX) are both at inflection points. TLT is just above the 50DMA and close to testing downtrend resistance.  If inflationistas get spooked on the long end and sell because Bernanke is too soft on the short end, TLT could retest the June 2009 lows of $86.

On the other hand RSI is building as is momentum so if there's some type of flight to safety and/or deflation consensus, it could break the downtrend and test the 200DMA at 92.20.  Below I also provided the 30 Year Treasury Yield chart ($TYX).  You can see the obvious make or break level at ceiling resistance and at the triangle point.  $TYX is just above the 50 day moving average so in my opinion if it breaks below that it could test the 200DMA (230 basis points lower around 44 or 4.4%).  Since the October 2009 low $TYX always found support at the 200DMA. 

If the S&P decides to roll over and test the 200 day moving average ($1,037), in the past Treasuries caught a bid so perhaps yields (inverse of price) would follow suit.  I'm not sure if that's the definite dynamic today given jitters on the long end.  Is the long bond now considered "risk" on the "flight to safety" trade even though it's technically "risk free"?  Is "temporary flight" risk officially priced in? I'll just watch the charts, follow the dough...  Charts below are $SPX, TLT and $TYX.

TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund)

$TYX (30-Year T-Bond Yield)

$SPX (S&P 500 Large Cap Index)

[Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com]

Comments

  1. Gold/SPX diverging, this is a signal to buy that ratio, in my opinion. If I see Asia-up tonight I'm picking up USD positions with a double-down order under today's low and going on vacation to Uruguay.

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  2. I just saw EUR/USD crip walk above resistance, it's retesting for confirmation (1.35972) interesting. http://www.flickr.com/photos/dvolatility/4388463817/

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  3. Failed, nice little channel (1.357-1.359) http://www.flickr.com/photos/dvolatility/4389261196/

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  4. why are you writing about soros and not about me he is public and i am hidden but i am richer than he is and my purpose is higher than If I give to 6.7b people 8642$ a year to each of them it is 63 t$ per year it is one GDP plus as demand. How can inflation appear?. Only will be reduced availability of low wage workong force for companies. Demand is solving recessional and depressional problems of the crisis. The demand is creator of jobs better than government supstitution for lack of private demand that appearing in crisis.

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  5. Individual cent, national dollar global glob and universal zix.100 to 1 to 10 to 100. One cent one bread, all over this world. If not, then: 100 to 10 to 1 to 10 to 100.

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  6. Graphic: <>> yes this is <>> first two simbols or signs are representing existing situation and the third additional god given intervention as deus ex machina with quintupled value activated.

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  7. Why are only Distressed Volatility comment here only? My comments at RenewableEnergy's comment are to be pulled here to be managed.

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  8. TypAOZOMONTERBON QEMPEREFUPERT
    BONTOTORONGOS RESTRETUNOFON
    COMPTOBOHOSIN SNOVOMERTENEN
    DUNTOPETOSTAN TUNGONAPRONGO
    ENEMENEMORGOW USPERBEROPONS
    FOPOSTALORNIO VABONOTOMUSTO
    GOMREMNOQUPTO WIRTOTOPERTUO
    HAMENTOMNOSEP XATENVOPATENO
    IWUMONTOREMON YSTEPENTESOPE
    JECTOMORUNZON ZONTOVONTOIRA
    KVENTUGDMENTO 1EDEMONDOFORT
    LOMONALUZOMBO 2HAMSOGOMONOP
    MANUMEFUMENGO 3DAHOMONOPERN
    NODOMUREGOSEN 4NEDOMENEMONS
    ORTEGONEMETON 5NOPITOMONORA
    PRESENTOBONGO 6TENTOSMEMONT
    e your reply...

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  9. One continent in my paradigm become an universate, one of 8 that I divide the globe to universalize it, not divide to rule but divide to universalize and unite all particularistic national elements into unified civilisation. One universate consists of 32 forsates.

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  10. One continent in my paradigm become an universate, one of 8 that I divide the globe to universalize it, not divide to rule but divide to universalize and unite all particularistic national elements into unified civilisation. One universate consists of 32 forsates. I am missing 6 letters or characters, I made new but I don't know how to install them into the keyboard. Solution is to make quite new keyboard, so to say an universalized keyboard. These forsates I posted are of blue coloured continent - universate, name I forgot, but was restren, then I have changed it.

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  11. I am checking warious copy boxes, how they accept the distributed content?
    Money supply or money stocks fell to 13 t$, which is sign that I have speed up introduction of 63 t$ in Zbixes ( as 1 Z = 100 New $ = 10000 Old $ ). People resist changes because they are not educated to change but to conserve. But soon or later, one currency shall emerge to be measurement to all others. Better be it god's Zbix than any other less good and less universal as dollar is now.

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