Watch S&P Get Smoked Into The Close, Down 3.1% ($SPX Video, 2/4/2010)

Watch the S&P get smoked today into the close.  It ended down 3.11% and took out 1072 floor support. It looks like 1040 is the next support level and ultimately the 2009 summer highs at 954.  We shall see folks, whatever the algos want to do. Hopefully you are riding cheap index puts from early January. Recap on the day:

Greek Union Strike, Spain, Portugal CDS Widen, Sovereign White Knight Needed (Blog Post)
Initial jobless claims at highest level since mid-December (MarketWatch)
Productivity, Jobless Claims Rise (WSJ)
Congress OKs $1.9 trillion boost in debt limit (CNNMoney)
From yesterday: U.S. May Lose 824,000 Jobs as Employment Data Revised: Analysis (Bloomberg)
New York sues Bank of America over Merrill Lynch merger (CSMonitor)
Get Ready:  PREVIEW-US Jan payrolls seen +5,000,jobless rate 10.1 pct (Reuters)



Chart/FreeStockCharts.com, Instrumental/Who Shot Ya

Comments

  1. Forgot to factor in the extra two months to continue trend from Dec. It looks like it hits around 1050 today. The 200d is at 1018 and ultimate support 1000. We'll see if this rip on the Greek bailout starts building a strong base. http://lh3.ggpht.com/_xlGBqqM0muE/S3Gnx5Wy8aI/AAAAAAAADsk/Yje4j8g_0ZI/s800/Screen%20shot%202010-02-09%20at%2012.18.44%20PM.png

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  2. Looks corrective, if this is a C wave we should see a much sharper rally, I got long at 15 and 1065 and short at 1080, betting on a wave 5. The uber-bears are betting on a 3 of 3, it'd be interesting if we say that in SPX but gold bounces hard while SPX is in a wave 4. That's the model hedge, if you see chop then we're in for a contiuation, otherwise it's a correction marking a cycle bottom and gold has a leg up to 1300+ in the next quarter.

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  3. Yeah, the euro to dollar to gold and spx could have interesting effects here if the rally is sold, IMO.

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  4. I covered those shorts (1.2% gain) when I saw them interacting feebly with the 8-hr and I'll replace them during asia, 5 of C, if it crashes in the morning I'll know I'm right. And that's the Tao of trading.

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  5. Gangsta.

    I'm liking the pricing of Silver, I hope it isn't much higher than this when it bottoms and finds support worth buying, assuming this is a correction. Gold's relative strength should be a sign that this deflation trade isn't as linear as the reflation trade, to that effect debit ratio spreads on the Gold/Silver1 ratio might be a better instrument than buying futures. Meanwhile everything else seems to be worth shorting to "hold", if we get a bounce tomorrow that might be the last chance to ride the short bus.

    I'd like to see more analysis on correlations, if we break the mass-correlation regime of the Geithner PPT/Bernake QE/ZIRP Carry then things will be interesting again, which is the least we should ask for since most traders lose money. The SPX and GC are pretty closely priced, a numerical anomoly perhaps more illustrative of our current historical impasse than anything else, I'm willing to bet these two are just strangers passing on a long and lonesome road.

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  6. Very interesting market. Silver crushed through the 200dma. GLD/Gold looks like it broke through a floor. The 1yr uptrend in the "gold continuous contract" from this post (http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2009/12/three-gold-support-levels-to-watch-gld.html) hits around 1025 and the 200d is at 1017 as we speak. It is trading at 1063.. That "gold continuous contract" on stockcharts.com is a weighted avg of all gold contracts. I'll chart out gold/silver/usdtomorrow and see whats up. I see $copper is at support but China is make or break at the 200dma. Interesting times..

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  7. Very interesting market. Silver crushed through the 200dma. GLD/Gold looks like it broke through a floor. The 1yr uptrend in the "gold continuous contract" from this post (http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2009/12/three-gold-support-levels-to-watch-gld.html) hits around 1025 and the 200d is at 1017 as we speak. It is trading at 1063.. That "gold continuous contract" on stockcharts.com is a weighted avg of all gold contracts. I'll chart out gold/silver/usdtomorrow and see whats up. I see $copper is at support but China is make or break at the 200dma.

    ReplyDelete

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