If SPY Breaks Below 115 There's Double Dip Risk, ISEE Call/Put Ratio Not Bearish (TLT, SPY, 3/25/2010)

Watch the new $115 support level or the yellow line below. If 115 gets taken out on strong volume the market could be making a forward looking statement, if you know what I mean.  It is testing the lower end of a 2 month uptrend channel as you can see below.  If channel support gets taken out tomorrow then $115 support could be in play again.  Just saying, if I were net-long equities in a $136 Billion portfolio I'd have breakout/double top risk insured with puts and reevaluate at $115.

The ISEE Index or ISE buy-to-open call/put ratio was not bearish as of today's close (more info here on ISEE). It closed at 155 verses 160 on 3/16/2010 and 67 on 1/26/2010 (pre-correction). Below 100 means puts > calls.   You can see the double dip in bearish bias that brought on the correction (second chart below). Also FYI, the line in the sand for the E-Mini June Future is 1,141 (ESM10 chart videos).

I included at the bottom a SPY and TLT (long bond etf) comparison chart for today. SPY was up 1% at one point but ended up closing in the red, on decent volume.  TLT gained on SPY's weakness towards the end of the day but still closed lower. Interesting stuff going on, especially with interest rates and currencies.  Either way I like it.

SPY (Courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com)


Chart courtesy of ISE.com, ISEE Index


SPY vs. TLT 1-day Chart, took back all gains.

This is part 2 of a 3 part post. Find the first post at Market Analysis for 3/24/2010 (Part 1: DXY, GLD, SLV, JJC, USO, SPY). I will zoom out and do multiple 1-year charts on Friday/Saturday.

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