A few weeks ago Goldman strategist Abby Cohen said S&P fair value was between 1250-1300 [video] so that's another possible target. If I attempted to pull the trigger to ride an upside breakout I'd buy some cheap puts for downside protection just in case there's a catalyst that fakes the break (which Marc Faber thinks could happen). The Volatility Index (VIX) is testing lows again, however if history repeats itself volatility (option or insurance premium bids) could rush into S&P index options and bring down the S&P or SPY, which would make your puts more valuable. The same would hold true if I wanted to get short and hedge with calls if the S&P broke back below the ultimate downtrend and channel support. It's all risk management. Learn more about buying index puts to hedge at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE.com). It appears that crude oil, the S&P and gold are all testing major resistance levels (except gold which is minor resistance below the December 2009 peak). I'll update tomorrow. All eyes are on any sign of a double dip recession, the market will lead the data. Watch out for catalizadores.
S&P 500 - 10 Year Chart [FreeStockCharts.com]
S&P 500 40 Year Chart (should say 50mma)
S&P 500 5 Year Chart
VIX (CBOE Market Volatility Index)