In the end, $SPY (S&P 500 ETF) needs to break through the downtrend from 2007 and above the January 2010 highs to build supportive infrastructure to reach the castle and defeat the King aka the 2000-2007 double top which looks like 1,500. That's 378 points away and we just added 500 from the March 2009 lows so it could take months or years. That will be a memorable moment and will probably set the stage for the next 20 year bull market but hopefully it won't be the result of hyperinflation and/or artificial in nature (a breakout but not priced in gold). If the market fails at this downtrend, the correction from January could proceed and the February lows would be in play (see free MarketClub video: Line Drawn In The Sand For Equity Markets).
S&P 500 40 Year Chart (Courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com)
SPY 22 Year Chart (SPDRs S&P 500 Trust ETF)
$SPY 6 Year Chart
Oh by the way TLT (the long Treasury is testing downtrend resistance in a channel. It could break out and hit its 50DMA 94.40 if it rides the safe haven trade tomorrow with the US Dollar, or vice versa and hits $87. Watch the move. Also The Fly is in 12% treasuries, 35% equities and 53% cash.