March 3 marked the peak in net speculative long exposure. Large speculators started to unwind long positions, or boost short exposure, while the future kept making new highs. This divergence was interesting, especially since the ratio went negative on 3/23/2010 and closed out 1.2 million contracts. Large speculators haven't been net short in over a year. What's up... It's also interesting how short small speculators were back in December. Today saw a huge down day which I'll explain below. Is this peak different than the others?
ES, CME - E-Mini S&P Index, Net Commitments of Futures Traders
Today was a volatile day during the Goldman Sachs hearing/Greek bond massacre, SPY closed down 2.34% but VXX (Volatility Index ETF) spiked 9.85%! I threw up a Screenr video chartcast showing SPY breaking down into the close and shot the June E-mini S&P future after the close. In the background you can hear Goldman's CFO answering questions at the hearing for your entertainment. Today kind of felt like late 2008 with the massive regulatory/banking confusion.
SPY and ES both broke an ascending channel and $114.67 looks like support for SPY if it can't hold the 50 day moving average. The main level of support for the E-mini S&P future (ESM10) is 1142.5, however, there's a also a minor shelf at 1,174 (see 2nd video). In also flipped through the charts of June Oil (CLM10) and the US Dollar Index (DXM10) future.
Distressed Volatility Chartcast #1: Watch $SPY (S&P ETF) breakdown into the close, before rallying.
Distressed Volatility ChartCast #2: S&P E-mini, Oil and US Dollar Index. DVtv ChartCasts are sponsored by Distressed Volatility Research.