ETF Technical Analysis Update on SPY, GLD, SLV, UUP, USO [Part 1]

Gold, silver, S&P 500, oil and the US Dollar Index are all at interesting levels.  I thought I'd chart out GLD, SLV, SPY, USO and UUP tonight and do gold, silver, E-mini S&P, Dollar Index futures and ETF ratios tomorrow. If I'm all wired up on guarana and ginseng I'll throw in Treasuries and yields.  Charts below are courtesy of By the way you can watch the ETFs stream live on the widget above.

GLD (Gold ETF):  If GLD takes out 114 resistance from January it could rally to 119 which is the next major inflection point.  RSI is above 50 and pierced through the previous high plus the MACD is above 0 line. There was interesting volume on a few GLD call strikes today, 24,980 April 114 calls traded with 31023 open and 11040 May 114 calls traded with 5450 open. There was also activity in March 2011, courtesy of CrimsonMind:
"Late in the trading session today 11,250 March 110 calls traded at $11.20 (bid:1.10 ask:1.30) and 22,500 March 140 calls traded at $3.15 (bid:3.05 ask:3.20)."

Here is a closer look at GLD.  It needs to break above 114 to prove it can test 119.

SLV (Silver ETF):  It is interesting that GLD broke to new highs but SLV didn't.  You can see that 20 is the ultimate ceiling resistance level to conquer.  A near term $19 break could be a decent hedged bet though, imo.  It just broke above a downtrend it looks like so all eyes are on precious metals.  SLV relative strength (RSI) is decent and the MACD is above 0 (also see post on GLD:SLV ratio on 3/17).

SPY (S&P 500 SPDRS ETF):  SPY pierced through an uptrend channel today if you use the low from February.  If it rolls over here you can see the firm 115 support level. If 115 gets taken out, hopefully you own puts.

Also take a look at the yearly SPY chart and the new uptrend and wedge..

UUP (US Dollar Bullish ETF):  UUP has been in an uptrend channel for a few months now.  If UUP can take out $24 resistance it could run to $25 (3/2009 resistance).  Watch the MACD center line (zero), 50DMA and uptrend support if there's a breakdown threat. 

USO (Oil ETF):  USO is the most interesting to me because it's been in a sideways channel for 11 months now.  It pierced through the ceiling but came back down today.  If the breakout is confirmed USO will skyrocket.  If it fails it will retest the same boring sideways channel with the 50d, 200d and, if the economy rolls over, $34 support. I'll look at oil futures tomorrow, but this looks like the best risk/reward play if you can time it. Remember that USO rolls oil contracts every month so if the oil futures curve is in steep contango (price higher than previous month) it creates a "negative roll yield".


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