ETF Technical Analysis Update on SPY, GLD, SLV, UUP, USO [Part 1]

Gold, silver, S&P 500, oil and the US Dollar Index are all at interesting levels.  I thought I'd chart out GLD, SLV, SPY, USO and UUP tonight and do gold, silver, E-mini S&P, Dollar Index futures and ETF ratios tomorrow. If I'm all wired up on guarana and ginseng I'll throw in Treasuries and yields.  Charts below are courtesy of By the way you can watch the ETFs stream live on the widget above.

GLD (Gold ETF):  If GLD takes out 114 resistance from January it could rally to 119 which is the next major inflection point.  RSI is above 50 and pierced through the previous high plus the MACD is above 0 line. There was interesting volume on a few GLD call strikes today, 24,980 April 114 calls traded with 31023 open and 11040 May 114 calls traded with 5450 open. There was also activity in March 2011, courtesy of CrimsonMind:
"Late in the trading session today 11,250 March 110 calls traded at $11.20 (bid:1.10 ask:1.30) and 22,500 March 140 calls traded at $3.15 (bid:3.05 ask:3.20)."

Here is a closer look at GLD.  It needs to break above 114 to prove it can test 119.

SLV (Silver ETF):  It is interesting that GLD broke to new highs but SLV didn't.  You can see that 20 is the ultimate ceiling resistance level to conquer.  A near term $19 break could be a decent hedged bet though, imo.  It just broke above a downtrend it looks like so all eyes are on precious metals.  SLV relative strength (RSI) is decent and the MACD is above 0 (also see post on GLD:SLV ratio on 3/17).

SPY (S&P 500 SPDRS ETF):  SPY pierced through an uptrend channel today if you use the low from February.  If it rolls over here you can see the firm 115 support level. If 115 gets taken out, hopefully you own puts.

Also take a look at the yearly SPY chart and the new uptrend and wedge..

UUP (US Dollar Bullish ETF):  UUP has been in an uptrend channel for a few months now.  If UUP can take out $24 resistance it could run to $25 (3/2009 resistance).  Watch the MACD center line (zero), 50DMA and uptrend support if there's a breakdown threat. 

USO (Oil ETF):  USO is the most interesting to me because it's been in a sideways channel for 11 months now.  It pierced through the ceiling but came back down today.  If the breakout is confirmed USO will skyrocket.  If it fails it will retest the same boring sideways channel with the 50d, 200d and, if the economy rolls over, $34 support. I'll look at oil futures tomorrow, but this looks like the best risk/reward play if you can time it. Remember that USO rolls oil contracts every month so if the oil futures curve is in steep contango (price higher than previous month) it creates a "negative roll yield".



  1. I've been looking at that oil trade but I need to see more signals before I do an outright May Put, there isn't much sense of timing for a mean-reversion trade, probably better to just sell short with a stop above the recent high.

    Entering an ATM credit spread (selling the 42, buying the 45) makes more sense.

  2. I'm mainly talking about riding the upside breakout when it finally breaks free from that channel. If I were to load up on naked calls or USO and pay up for protection, I'd want the possibility of a decent breakout. Like the gold in December. It could test that new support level around 40 which was just broken. Are you gaming on a downside move? There are also interesting charts in this minyanville article.

    Also here's a new chart of USO I just drew on w/ various channels and trend lines. I'm going to chart out the futures in a sec. I'll throw up a chart of yours if you got one.

  3. Yeah I was looking at the downside, I think yesterday morning was the last opportunity to make a good Call pop that we'll see for at least a month, I missed it because my limit order on SPY April 119 was a few cents below the LOD for that contract, and I don't chase, so my perfectionism kept me out.

    I'm looking at IYR 50 and C 4 puts (May), maybe IWM if it forms a top. The relative weakness in IYR makes me feel safer about a reversal play and C is just speculative candy.

  4. Do you have any thoughts on OIL (etn) vs. USO (etf)?

  5. ETNs seem like shaky things to hold, just a notch better than leveraged ETFs or ETFs suffering from negative roll yield. I'd rather buy options on USO than OIL.

  6. Yeah it's almost exhausted according to my wave model and will be making a correction for 5-10 trading days before taking off for the 3 of 1 of V. It's clear that we've begun the 3rd leg of the move that began in Nov. 2008, there were five daily momentum cycles forming a triangle that constitutes a wave 4 correction of this move, and I think we're in the early phases of a move that will take at least another two months and get us around 1350. I'll be waiting for a correction to around 111 or 110 on GLD and buying May 115 and 117s. I'm also going to put some of my cash savings into physical coins at this juncture, just in case we never look back.

    However according to weekly cycles, we're completing the move from 2001 which is the first of three legs in the secular gold bull. This means 1350 to maybe a crazy blow-off target like 1500 will mark the top for 18 months and we'll see all this interest from retail investors in the form of ETFs, bank custodial accounts and leveraged derivative long positions unwind the price back to around 1000 or maybe 850, maybe maybe 650 but probably not, too many strong hands waiting to buy with cash. Holding physical will be the way to play the next major leg of the bull in 2012-2016.

    Gold/SPX ratio looking robust for selling ES and buying GC or doing "Janus Strangles" as I call them, where you take a directional bias on a ratio by buying, in this case, calls on GLD and puts on SPY, go out of the money by a least a few handes and out by a least a few months.

  7. Whoa watch this.. and did you hear this king world radio show wtf?

  8. Counter-point:

    I think when you have retail investors trusting banks with their money to "invest in gold" the cookie jar is too irresistable and there will be fraud, this is distinct from how the futures market works. At some point after gold begins a massive wave 3 driven by monetary revaluation rather than leveraged piling in, this will be an issue.


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