"Secular bull market periods tend to begin with quite low multiples to normalized earnings (historically, on the order of 7), which is what provides the platform for a very long period of subsequent gains. It would not be surprising to observe a sequence of cyclical movements comprising a bear-bull-bear series, ending with a final and uncomfortable valuation trough (perhaps 6-8 years from now) before the market is finally priced to deliver that sort of sustained "secular" period of long-term gains. Current valuations provide no such platform.
Again, at this point it does not matter whether we anticipate further credit strains or not. Wholly on the basis of current valuations, stocks are priced to deliver unsatisfactory returns in the coming years - a situation that is worsened by strenuous overbought conditions and upward yield pressures here." [full report is here]
Hussman: Haven't Seen Final Uncomfortable Valuation Trough, Sees Overbought Conditions With Upward Yield Pressure [Extend and Pretend Note]
4/17/2010 04:09:00 PM | via @Dvolatility |
John Hussman of Hussman Funds released a note on April 12 titled "Extend and Pretend". He thinks we are overbought and haven't seen the "final and uncomfortable valuation trough" that usually precludes a secular bull market. He thinks "perhaps 6-8 years from now".