Yale's Robert Shiller: 50% Chance Of Another Housing Downturn, Don't Bet Farm On Housing Recovery (BloombergTV and NYT)

Yale Professor Robert Shiller recently wrote piece in the New York Times titled Don’t Bet the Farm on the Housing Recovery - April 9, 2010 NYT. Shiller co-founded the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index (see chart below). He remains cautious on the recent housing recovery.
"On March 31, the Federal Reserve ended its program of buying more than $1 trillion of mortgage-backed securities, and the homebuyer tax credit expires on April 30.

Recent polls show that economic forecasters are largely bullish about the housing market for the next year or two. But one wonders about the basis for such a positive forecast.

Momentum may be on the forecasts’ side. But until there is evidence that the fundamental thinking about housing has shifted in an optimistic direction, we cannot trust that momentum to continue." [NYT]

On Bloomberg TV today he said there's a 50-50 chance of another housing downturn. For the full video click here.


The S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City composite for January was down 0.2% from December 2009 but unchanged on the year.  The 20-City composite for January was down 0.4% from December 2009 and down 0.7% from a year ago.  Home prices are back at 2003 levels.  For recent posts on housing click the labels below. 

(Source: S&P pdf released 3/30/2010)

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