Euro Going To 1.20 By 4th Quarter (FX Concepts John Taylor), EUR/USD Technicals (Chart)

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John Taylor of FX Concepts, the biggest currency hedge fund in the world, thinks the trillion dollar European bailout will just delay the fall to 1.20 on EUR/USD.  He thinks it will hit 1.20 in the 4th quarter and potentially lower.  Taylor is a Dollar bull favoring US over European economic growth and I'm sure forward looking US/EU interest rate differentials are part of the equation.  The chart does not look healthy.

It's interesting that the initial EUR/USD spike above 1.3 on the bailout news was sold hard to 1.27.  It could revisit the 1.25196 low from last week and double bottom support from 2008/early 2009 at 1.24/1.25.  If these levels get taken out, it is game over imho.  The Euro will hit 1.17-1.20, making FX Concepts billions on its 100x leveraged EUR/USD short position.  I bet the RSI (relative strength index) breaks below 30 before a confirmed bottom.

For recent posts on EUR/USD and Euro click the links or labels at the bottom.  I've been covering the Euro since the Dollar bottomed after Thanksgiving 2009.  Look back at EUR/USD or Euro Index posts from 12/1/2009-5/1/2010 for a refresher.  Big institutions were loading up on the Dollar before the Euro crisis hit.  See John Taylor on BloombergTV on 3/25/2010 giving his 1.20 call here.

 EUR/USD 10 year chart (fxstreet.com)



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