Google Golden Cross, Sentiment and 50% Retracement Watch ($GOOG Short Interest, Put-Call Ratio Trend)

I just did a post on the Google TV Keynote which you should check out. GoogleTV is coming this fall. I felt like charting out $GOOG and it doesn't look pretty at the moment.  It looks similar to the market indexes. $GOOG is in a short term downtrend, look at the dotted line on the chart. If the powers that be can trade GOOG through that downtrend and break back above the 38.2% retracement level, there could be hope for at least a rally to the moving averages. If the market continues to roll over, aka SPY can't take out 200DMA resistance, $GOOG could head on down to the 50% retracement level around $439. Floor support resides at $447 from June 2009 and $375 from February 2009. GOOG is currently trading at $472. Oh and watch the 50/200 day moving average on the chart.  If the 50 day moving average (blue) crosses below the 200 day moving average (red) ("golden cross") it usually signals confirmed weakness ahead, with rallies and retests along the way.  There are exceptions.

GOOG Downtrend, RSI, MACD (Daily) - Stockcharts.com

GOOG Fibonacci Retracements (Weekly) - Stockcharts.com

I found interesting GOOG sentiment data at SchaeffersResearch.com.  Short interest especially.  $GOOG short interest, ending 5/1 (so backward looking) was the lowest it's been in over 2 years at 3.39 million shares.  In mid February, 2010 short interest was double where it was on 5/1, at 6.07 million.  So shorts covered the February correction.  Short interest stayed around 3.3 million when GOOG lost 11.7% ($595 to 525).  The stock is now at $472 (down another 10%), so perhaps shorts loaded up from 5/1 to 5/15, we'll see when the data comes out.  It's also interesting that the GOOG put/call open interest ratio fell in tandem with price since the mid April peak (.72 to .51 as of 5/20 at SchaeffersResearch) and the P/C ratio is at a 1-year low and even close to the 2-year low. So that's considered optimism as calls open are double puts. Is it enough optimism to continue fading? The measure that makes sense here is volatility. The GOOG VIX more than tripled since mid-March (.13 to .42) anticipating the sell off. Which measure will fold at the poker table? It will be interesting to see.  Find historical charts of all these ratios at SchaeffersResearch.com.

In other news, Google was just cleared by the FTC to acquire AdMob for $750 Million. Video courtesy of BloombergTV.  Also remember Google pulled out of China via google.cn?  Will that effect revenues?

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