Watch out for a 50/200DMA golden cross to the downside which would confirm lower levels and fundamentally a double dip housing recession (imho); and keep an eye on interest rate black swans, you never know.
As previously noted here and here, John Paulson of hedge fund Paulson & Co., believes housing is in a V-shaped recovery and sees California home prices up 20% this year and 8-12% nationwide in 2011. I'll look into some of Paulson's holdings next.
ITB (iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index ETF)
Courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com