BP Stock -15%, CDS Spikes to 167bps, ATP Notes Down $300M, ATPG -18% and APC -19.5% [Stock Charts]

This BP "black swan" event in the Gulf (live BP oil cam) is not only killing the environment, but losing investors big money.  Except those long credit default swaps, short stock or long puts. BP's stock is down about 15% today after the "top kill" operation failed (bp.com).  They now have to drill relief wells which could take 2 months to complete (msnbc).  London investment bank Arbuthnot Securities thinks "BP Plc may break up or become a takeover target" (bloomberg).  The cost of the spill so far is $1 billion for $BP (npr).

BP stock lost 15% today and 40% since mid-April.  Andarko Petroleum lost 19.55% today and 45% since mid-April and ATP Oil & Gas lost 18% and 60% respectively (look at the comparison chart).

Not only that, $1.5 billion of ATP 11.875% senior second lien notes, sold to institutional investors 1-day before the spill, lost $300 million.  The notes are trading at 78.875 according to Bloomberg.  Credit default swap spreads on BP spiked 67% today to 167 basis points (insurance premium on BP debt).  Also find free BP bond information and historical price/yield charts at Finra.org.

Before forming BP Acquisition LLC (co-led by anonymous Twitter peeps and financed by Prosper.com), I'd like to see BP implied volatility simmer down a bit.  On the ISE, BP implied volatility hit a 52 week high of 77.95% with historical volatility at 61.44%.  424,800 options traded today, way above the daily average volume of 59,300 contractsLet the swings begin....

BP plc [chart courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com]

*BP is unchanged over a 13 year period (since 1997).  It hit a low in 2003 and early 2009 and now BP is testing those levels again.  Look at BP compared to crude oil.

BP vs. Light Crude [chart courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com]

APC (Andarko Petroleum) [chart courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com]

 ATPG (ATP Oil & Gas) [chart courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com]

APC, BP, ATPG comparable since mid-April

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