Illinois, California Default Probability Higher Than Portugal (CDS)

It will be interesting to watch Illinois and California CDS going forward. As mentioned in my previous post, the CPD% (cumulative probability of default percentage) next to the CDS quote at CMA Market Data measures the probability of default.  The State of Illinois and California took out Portugal today on the "highest default probability list"!  They are now up against Iraq.  Since Distressed Volatility has a cell in Chicago, Illinois, agents there might have to move to Asia.

Highest Default Probabilities
Source CMA DataVision on June 17, 2010

"Entity Name Mid Spread CPD (%)
Venezuela 1318.02 57.29
Greece 814.68 48.88
Argentina 1033.74 48.68
Pakistan 766.70 39.59
Ukraine 614.31 34.02
Dubai/Emirate of 466.15 27.04
Iraq 399.30 24.05
Illinois/State of 304.64 22.81
California/State of 296.05 22.59
Portugal 306.85 22.57"

News:
Moody's Lowers Illinois Rating On Budget Woes - WSJ 
Moody’s Downgrades Illinois as State Eyes $3B of Deals - Bond Buyer
Moody's downgrades state bonds, revenues continue slide - State Journal
Fitch Downgrades Illinois' GO Bonds to 'A' from 'A+' - Street Insider
*Illinois Has $4.5 Billion In Unpaid Bills, $1.75 Billion Due June 10 - 5/17/2010

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