Is GLD Ready For 2010 Breakout? DXY, SLV, GDX, GVZ, GLD Charts

Here are charts of SLV (Silver ETF), GLD (Gold ETF), GDX (Gold Stock ETF), DXY (US Dollar Index) and GLD/UUP (Gold ETF/US Dollar ETF).  Gold, Silver and their fiat buddy $USD are testing ceiling resistance levels as we speak and could spike or decouple at any moment.  The US Dollar took out a downtrend (chart 1) but still needs to break above the late 2008 high to be scot-free.  GLD could spike if it violates $122, look at the ascending channels for potential targets (chart 2, 3).

On CNBC today Dennis Gartman recommended owning GLD in non-US Dollar terms (GLD/FXB (pound), GLD/FXY (yen), GLD/FXE etc).  This is nothing new, in late February Gartman said to short Euros in Gold and since then FXE/GLD lost 22%.

SLV and GDX are testing important levels and GLD/UUP (Gold/Dollar ratio/chart 4) is being squeezed in a symmetrical triangle point.  See posts from last week (12).  Overnight Update:  XAUUSD spot is up 0.40% to $1243.20 right at the May highs.  Keep an eye on the gold miners (Chart 6).  In May, GDX was the only laggard when GLD, SLV and GDXJ (junior miners) broke above resistance, before the failure.

SLV (chart 5) is trading in a decent ascending channel but needs to break ceiling resistance.  I also compared the gold volatility index (GVZ) to GLD in chart 7.  GVZ made higher highs recently which is interesting.  Look how spikes in implied volatility moved with previous moves in GLD.  Spikes in GVZ implied both breakouts and breakdowns in GLD.

If for any reason GLD fails to make new highs, the 50 day moving average, long term uptrend line and 200 day moving average are support levels.  If the uptrend gets taken out there could be a $100 support test and structural decision.  Options on GLD look expensive compared to April when GVZ bottomed out (GVZ measures GLD implied volatility using GLD option premiums, learn more at  Btw, a week ago INO's market club service said all 3 trade triangles were green for gold (video).  Here you gold bugs go for good luck, Gold's 'Real Move' to $7,000 Coming: Asset Manager ( - CNBC.

1) DXY (US Dollar Index since 1992 with MACD) 
Courtesy of

2) GLD (SPDR Gold ETF Long Term)
Courtesy of

3) GLD (near term ascending triangle, potential breakout area)

4) GLD/UUP (Gold/US Dollar Index ETF) - Inflection point

5) SLV ascending channel/triangle

6) GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners)

GVZ vs. GLD (snapshot courtesy of Marketwatch)

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