"What worries me is that I'm afraid that the US and the European countries, and Japan also, are in the process of making a policy error and are tightening fiscal policy even as the global economy begins to go into this soft patch, and if they do that the same thing could happen that happened in the 1930s....." (Read: High Taxes and High Budget Deficits The Hoover–Roosevelt Tax Increases of the 1930s - Cato.org).Biggs is also worried about a double dip that lasts 2-3 quarters and expects 2010 EPS at $70-75 (a few months ago he was calling for $88-90, slashed), 2010 Nominal GDP growth at 2-3%, 2010 Real GDP growth at 1.5-2% and the market risks losing 10-15% from here. On a more positive note, Biggs ultimately believes the market is forming a 1982 style bottom and still likes Asia/Emerging markets.
Regarding double dip:
"That's the big question. Yeah look, I'm worried about it and I've reduced my risk a lot because of that, belatedly I would add, but I'm definitely worried about that and I'm worried that we could have not just a soft patch but a double dip which lasts 2 or 3 quarters, and where nominal GDP is only up 2-3% and that will have big effect on profits and will scare everybody, and I'm afraid the market goes down another 10-15% if that happens"Regarding corporate earnings:
"I think the S&P could only earn $70-75 this year if the second half is truly weak and we have only 1.5-2% real GDP growth or even less than that. There could be an earnings disappointment coming up here."His positions:
"I sold stocks pretty aggressively in the US and we had a lot in tech...."
"In general I reduced my net long position by 30-40 percentage points"