James Altucher vs. Roubini and Prechter, S&P 1,500 or Dow 1,000? WTF!

Watch James Altucher and Professor Nouriel Roubini battle it out on CNBC. Altucher sees 1,500 on the S&P with S&P EPS hitting $80 in 2010. By the way, Barton Biggs just slashed his 2010 EPS estimate to $70-75 and liquidated US stocks aggressively, at least that's what he said. Backing out cash, Altucher said stocks are trading at 11x earnings, below the historical average of 15, so he wants the S&P to fill that gap. Doesn't 80 x 15 = 1,200? The S&P already hit that level in April. Nouriel disagrees with James, he thinks the market is overpricing Q2 growth. Roubini sees 1.5% GDP growth vs. the 3% consensus estimate in the second half of the year. More estimates: Doug Kass sees $90 on the S&P in 2011 with 2%+ growth in the second half and Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave thinks the Dow will hit $1,000 over 5-6 years. Yes $1,000. Who to believe, who to believe.... Video courtesy of CNBC.com.

Comments

  1. That is the problem and good thing about CNBC. At least now they give ample voice to the bears and don't poo-poo them everytime they suggest negativity when it comes to current equity valuations. However, the constant back and forth is almost paralyzing as well as the diversity of opinion. I keep thinking we are range bound, but most of the experts believe we are headed one way or another in a big way. The VIX at 29 doesnt tell me too much other than insurance is slightly expensive right now and people are buying it.

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  2. I wouldn't be surprised to see a range bound market. I really want to see what happens with gold, silver, Treasuries and the USD first. I think judgement day is near. Everyone seems to be below the 200DMA, indexes at least. We'll see if Skyworks Solutions and Apple can hold this market up.

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  3. I agree about watching the 10yr and USD, but I have no idea where gold fits in here. I am fairly ignorant when it comes to how institutional investors view on gold: it seems like such a retail play right now and it feels toppy when every other commercial is begging me to send in my old gold. I think you are correct that we need tech to lead us here. Skyworks and Apple are excellent names. Intrigued by Google directionally in the 430 area as well.

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  4. I just read a great post over at Prof Pinch that talks about gold, rates econ data http://professorpinch.wordpress.com/2010/07/06/at-the-precipice-the-choices-we-make-vs-the-choices-were-forced-to-make/

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  5. Are we set up for the perfect wall of worry?

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