"This is a whole new paradigm. This is where we bring out the history books, not post 1945, maybe you know post 1700. This is a credit contraction of historical proportions and what happened was that for a period time, say for 3 quarters, maybe 4 quarters, we had this tremendous policy stimulus at the same time we had the green shoots from the effects of the inventories. That's all behind us right now."
"The range of outcomes right now is extremely wide, wider than I've seen certainly in my professional lifetime. So I'm willing to say that there's tremendous uncertainty out there."
"When I look at the economy bottom up, it's tough for me to get GDP growth rates much above 1% and in fact I think the odds that we could be contracting by the 4th quarter, barring some major unforeseen exogenous positive shock, I think that the odds that we slip back into recession, if we ever left the first recession, I think are a lot higher than a lot of market pundits are talking about right now."