On July 16, I told you to watch the Nikkei 9,000 support level when it rolled over at downtrend resistance (see charts). It breached that level today in Japan, closing at 8,995, down 1.33%. It hit an intra-day low of 8,983. The S&P E-mini future is down 0.82% overnight and could follow tomorrow. I charted out the Nikkei 225 September Future and the Index* (as of yesterday's close but zoomed out). You can see the obvious descending triangle breach in the future. The September future was trading at 8,935. If 9,000 turns out be to be new confirmed resistance, there's a chance Tokyo's Nikkei could sell off to 8,000 (-11%) or even double dip to early 2009 levels. If I was a long only mutual fund, I would not want to own Japan yet until a) 9k support was set in stone and b) the Nikkei took out that downtrend line from 2007.
Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index Sep 2010 (NKU10) - OptionsXpress