Investors Intelligence Bearish Percentage vs. VIX (Hussman)

John Hussman, in his most recent weekly market comment titled "the recognition window", made an interesting observation that the Investors Intelligence Bearish Percentage was diverging with the Volatility Index (VIX), or as he put it "bearishness without nervousness". Here's a quote.

An important part of last week's advance appeared to be a simple "clearing" of the a short-term oversold condition in prices and bearish sentiment. While the recent increase in bearish sentiment might have deserved something of a "clearing rally," it is notable that we're observing what might be called bearishness without nervousness. The chart below presents the Investors Intelligence bearish percentage versus the CBOE volatility index (VIX), which is often viewed as a "fear gauge" for the stock market. Historically, increases in the level of bearishness early in a market downturn are often both accurate and persistent, as we observed all through 2008 and in many past market cycles. It's difficult to look at the evidence and conclude that investors are excessively bearish, much less terrified here. " (read full note with charts at

He also charted out the historical relationship between the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (3 Month Lead), Philadelphia Fed Index (1-Month Lead) and ISM Purchasing Managers Index (manufacturing). I recommend you read Hussman's weekly comments, they are packed with information.

Hat tip Pragmatic Capitalism

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