As the market (SPX) keeps moving higher in US Dollar terms, not priced in gold, (when is the "real" debt deflation correction? I see money velocity is up since Q4 2009, so perhaps never) the NBER, National Bureau of Economic Research, on 9/20/2010 declared the recession ended in June 2009. In September, the Census Bureau released 2009 data on Americans without health insurance and poverty rates. The poverty rate hit 14.3%, or the 1994 highs, and the number of uninsureds hit 16.7%, the highest level on the 1987-2009 chart in the report. If you do more research, you can see that tempporary employment is up 33% from June 2009 (ASA Staffing Index 72-96), which makes sense. So will the increase in money velocity translate temp employment into permanent employment and lower the poverty rate, and not just boost earnings per share? I threw up all the charts below. First the quote from NBER on the recession.
"CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion."
The market did a pretty good job forecasting this, backstopped by TARP of course. Here are charts from ASA and census.gov.
(data from American Staffing Association ASA)
(from Census.gov PDF)