I drew lines on $QQQQ, $BAL (Cotton ETN), $GLD and $JJC (Copper ETN) earlier today. $JJC and $QQQQ are just above the April highs (pre-flash crash) and are leading the market. Watch that thin shelf and steep uptrend for any violations. The Cotton ETF is up 62% in 3 months in a rising wedge and GLD is testing its ascending channel. I'm watching for near-term structural reversals. I saw there was a breakdown in $TLT (the first chart). It broke below that ascending channel but caught support at 100. It's also below the 50DMA. I'll be watching $100 support closely. If TLT breaks down and Treasury yields breakout, Marc Faber said that could support the US Dollar. I could see that happening, but there are still overhead resistance levels for UUP to conquer (see previous post on $USD and $UUP).
So how does Gold play out? Adam Hewison who runs MarketClub thinks it is going lower (see video below). Something interesting is about to happen in the market. I'm not sure what it is. If I was crazy long the reflation trade (commodities, equities etc.) I'd probably have some downside insurance in place after these huge runs. Plus Doug Kass thinks we are forming a top. I'd like to know what Robert Prechter thinks at this juncture. Thoughts? Check out all the charts below and the gold vid.
TLT (20+ Year Treasury ETF) - FreeStockCharts.com
BAL (iPath DJ-UBS Cotton Total Return Sub-Index ETN)