USDA World Crop Price Projections Rise, Corn at 2 Year High (USDA Price Table, USDX/CZ Chart)

The USDA released the October "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates" report on 10/8 and a "Crop Production" update via NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service). Commodities rallied on lower supply estimates and higher 2010/2011 price projections. Read the articles for more information.

Below is a table of 2010/11 price projections from the USDA report. If you chart out agricultural commodities, commodity indexes, base metals and precious metals, you can see that some prices pierced through overhead resistance on Friday. Right now the corn future is at a 2 year high (see chart). I'm also watching to see if the US Dollar Index catches support around here (see uptrend from 2008-2009 and 2009 floor on USDX/CZ10 chart). Eventually there will be a hard asset correction imo; however, the Ag trend, especially corn, looks strong. We'll see how 2010 ends. Hopefully input costs are hedged going forward if we see price spikes. Cocoa Puffs are already expensive as it is. Here we go: "Don Mulligan, chief executive at General Mills, told investors that the food company was “about 50 per cent hedged” for the 2011 fiscal year, which began in June." FT.com 8/2010.



World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(10/8/2010 Report at USDA.gov)
2010/2011 Avg Farm Price Projection
September (last mo)October
Wheat ($/bushel)4.95-5.655.20-5.80
Corn ($/bushel)4.00-4.804.60-5.40
Sorghum ($/bushel)3.70-4.404.80-5.60
Barley ($/bushel)3.70-4.303.80-4.40
Oats ($/bushel)2.20-2.702.20-2.70
Rice ($cwt)10.30-11.3012.10-13.10
Long Grain ($/cwt)8.50-9.5010.50-11.50
Medium & Short Grain ($/cwt)16.0-17.017.3-18.3
Soybeans ($/bushel)9.15-10.6510-11.50
Soybean Oil (c/lb)37.50-41.5039.50-43.50
Soybean Meal ($/s.t.)270-310290-330
Cotton (see report)63-7767-79


[ZC - Corn Future] at 2 Year High (CME Group)


DXY (Dollar) vs. CZ10 (December Corn Future) @ MarketWatch


Related links on agricultural commodities + oil

Corn prices rise to their limits on overnight markets - DesMoinesRegister.com

Food commodities attract upside bets - optionMONSTER

Corn Jumps 8.5% to Highest Price in Two Years After Supply Outlook Reduced - Bloomberg (Dec, 5.7325/bushel)

Corn Stocks Below Critical 1 Billion Mark - Greyson S. Colvin of Farmland Forecast - SeekingAlpha

USDA Report a Game Changer for Corn - James Courdier (Liberty Trading Group) on SeekingAlpha

Meat Market Corn Crunch Means Most Expensive U.S. Beef in Quarter Century - Bloomberg

Hedge Funds Raise Bullish Bets on Oil to Five-Month High: Energy Markets - Bloomberg

US corn crop shrinks, smallest stocks in 14 yrs - Reuters

World Wheat-Inventory Estimate Cut on U.S. Output Drop - BusinessWeek

Corn, Soy, Wheat Prices Surge as U.S. Cuts Supply Outlook - Bloomberg [10/8]

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