IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 (11/9/2010)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its 2010 World Energy Outlook on 11/9/2010. Find the *Presentation to the press and Executive Summary (PDFs) at worldenergyoutlook.org. IEA also has an archived webcast from the launch in London. Key points from the presentation below each chart (projections out to 2035):

"*The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case

*Global energy use grows by 36%, with non-OECD countries – led by China, where demand surges by 75% – accounting for almost all of the increase

*Demand for all types of energy increases in non-OECD countries, while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD


*Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies amounted to $312 billion in 2009, down from $558 billion in 2008, with the bulk of the fall due to lower international prices

*The global car fleet will continue to surge as more & more people in China & other emerging economies buy a car, overshadowing modest growth in the OECD

*Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus

*Production rises most in Saudi Arabia & Iraq, helping to push OPEC’s market share from
41% today to 52% by 2035, a level last seen prior to the first oil shock of 1973-1974

*Gas is set to play a key role in meeting the world’s energy needs. Demand rises by 44%,led by China & Middle East

*A drop in coal-fired generation in the OECD is offset by big increases elsewhere, especially China, where 600 GW of new capacity exceeds the current capacity of the US, EU & Japan

*The use of renewable energy triples between 2008 & 2035, driven by the power sector where their share in electricity supply rises from 19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035

*Given the sheer scale of China’s market, its push to expand the role of low-carbon energy
technologies is poised to play a key role in driving down costs, to the benefit of all countries

*Government support remains the key driver – rising from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion
in 2035 – but higher fossil-fuel prices & declining investment costs also spur growth

*Kazakhstan drives an increase in Caspian oil production to 5.2 mb/d by 2035, while Turkmenistan & Azerbaijan push up gas production to over 310 bcm"

Look how world oil production peaks. The baby blue area is "fields yet to be developed or found".



IEA oil price forecast (Dollars per barrel)

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