John Hussman's Thoughts on S&P Valuation and Effective Duration

Read John Hussman's new weekly market comment titled "Bubble, Crash, Bubble, Crash, Bubble...". 

On valuation.

"Even though the S&P 500 is substantially below its 2007 peak, it is also strenuously overvalued once again"

This part was interesting on effective duration.

"Keep in mind that the effective duration of the S&P 500 is now over 50, which implies two things. First, the sensitivity of stock prices to any rise in yield will be exaggerated here. Every 10 basis points of increase in yield (say, from the current 1.89% to 1.99%) implies a price decline of over 5%. Given that the historical norm of the S&P 500 yield is about twice the present level, it is clear that a significant reversion of expected returns from presently depressed levels would require a massive price adjustment."

He also talked about QE2, monetary policy, employment, market correlations, momentum indicators and market climate. Read the report at HussmanFunds.com (direct link).

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