Utility Scale Solar Power Is Coming! Bill Gross Interview of eSolar

Check this out! Bill Gross of eSolar is here to save us from an energy crisis. Utility scale solar thermal energy is almost at price parity with fossil fuels.

Image from eSolar.com

Google CEO Eric Schmidt Speech At 2010 Abu Dhabi Media Summit (ADMS), Rupert Murdoch Presentation Video ($GOOG, $NWS)

Below is Eric Schmidt, the CEO of Google, speaking at the 2010 Abu Dhabi Media Summit between 3/9/2010 and 3/12/2010 (courtesy of YouTube Channel TheADMS2010). I also put up Rupert Murdoch's presentation (News Corporation).

Greenspan On China Bubble, 10 Year Note Yield If Above 4% (3/26/2010)

Greenspan spoke with Bloomberg about Treasury yields (if 10 year yield rises above 4% aggressively), the huge Federal debt, US jobless rate, US Dollar, China bubble and the Fed Rate/10 Year yield conundrum during 2004 which he said was responsible for the housing bubble and crisis. Here's a quick summary and then the 12 minute video.

Chinese Firm Buys Foreclosed LA Marriott, 10% of Hotel Loans Delinquent In February, CMBS Delinquencies at 5.73% (Moody's) But Slowing - CRE Reading

Commercial real estate link fest and a video....

Watch Yields Closely and S&P 1150 Level (Philip Manduca of ECU Group)

I remember seeing Philip Manduca of ECU Group plc on CNBC today making sense of the markets. He talked about the Euro Zone's fiscal problem, US fiscal problem, how to trade the US Dollar, Euro and Yen during all of this and said keep an eye on Treasury yields, S&P 1,150 and stick with gold for the long term. He's sticking with the US Dollar in the short term but said that could change in a week.

A Spiritual Stock Market Awakening

If you are confused about the market, the video below has the answers. By Jefferson Krull at HitTheBid.net.

If SPY Breaks Below 115 There's Double Dip Risk, ISEE Call/Put Ratio Not Bearish (TLT, SPY, 3/25/2010)

Watch the new $115 support level or the yellow line below. If 115 gets taken out on strong volume the market could be making a forward looking statement, if you know what I mean.  It is testing the lower end of a 2 month uptrend channel as you can see below.  If channel support gets taken out tomorrow then $115 support could be in play again.  Just saying, if I were net-long equities in a $136 Billion portfolio I'd have breakout/double top risk insured with puts and reevaluate at $115.

The ISEE Index or ISE buy-to-open call/put ratio was not bearish as of today's close (more info here on ISEE). It closed at 155 verses 160 on 3/16/2010 and 67 on 1/26/2010 (pre-correction). Below 100 means puts > calls.   You can see the double dip in bearish bias that brought on the correction (second chart below). Also FYI, the line in the sand for the E-Mini June Future is 1,141 (ESM10 chart videos).

I included at the bottom a SPY and TLT (long bond etf) comparison chart for today. SPY was up 1% at one point but ended up closing in the red, on decent volume.  TLT gained on SPY's weakness towards the end of the day but still closed lower. Interesting stuff going on, especially with interest rates and currencies.  Either way I like it.

Peter Schiff Takes On Greenspan's 66-Page Report On Financial Crisis (Brookings Institute)

Peter Schiff responds below to Greenspan's 66-page recent report found here (Brookings Institute).

"This new market-based workforce, Greenspan said, helped push up growth in the developing world. This in turn fueled a global savings glut that drove down long-term interest rates, leading to an "unsustainable boom" in house prices, he said." (Reuters)

Remember he was always wondering why the long end was moving lower in 2005?  Calling it a "conundrum".  Greenspan also testified before congress in October, 2008 and said he found a flaw in his ideology.  Here is the video (Dissecting Alan Greenspan's Testimony, Finds Flaw in His Ideology).  Peter Schiff says it was all because he left short term interest rates artificially low for too long and he warned about housing in 2006 (Bloomberg/CNBC videos from 2006).

Where is EUR/USD Headed, Broke Support (Dennis Gartman, John Taylor and Chart), 1.30 and 1.25 Look Like First Support Levels, 1.35 New Ceiling Resistance

EUR/USD has been in play on this blog since February when it was at 1.39. I said a few days ago to watch the critical 1.349 support level on EUR/USD and since then it broke through that floor and is now trading at 1.33. Here's what is going on:
"European Union leaders will hold what is likely to be a tense and difficult summit on Thursday, divided over how to help heavily indebted Greece and struggling to maintain confidence in the euro.

Diplomatic efforts on the eve of the two-day summit failed to bridge differences over whether to offer a safety net to Greece, helping push the euro down to a 10-month low after Portugal suffered a debt down downgrade."
(read full Reuters article at CNBC.com)

So it's obviously a big mess and hedge funds are trying to make dough off this.  On Fast Money Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter said he was short the Euro and said it could hit 1.25, 1.20 or 1.15 (how about 0.75). He mentioned that the 100 day moving average crossed below the 200 day moving average which is a selling indicator.  Also if you're interested Gary Shilling thinks the Euro will hit parity with the Dollar.

US Dollar Breaks Out, GLD, SLV, JJC, USO, SPY Down, Market Analysis Part 1

Market Analysis for 3/24/2010 (Part 1: DXY, GLD, SLV, JJC, USO, SPY)

I'm going to chart out a bunch of stuff and chop up posts into parts.  Institutions have been minting Dollars on the Dollar rally since December, 2009.  Click here for an index of previous posts/charts/large spec action on the US Dollar.  The US Dollar Index broke out yet again folks.  Since gold peaked in the beginning of December, 2009, DXY (US Dollar Index) is up 10%.  Remember that Forex brokers offer leverage up to 400:1 on currency pairs in some cases.  So 10% is like a million percent people!  Look at the correlations between DXY, GLD (gold etf), SLV (silver etf), JJC (copper etf), USO (oil etf) and SPY (S&P etf) since GLD peaked.  The US Dollar outperformed everyone...

Thomas Lee: Falling VIX-to-Credit Correlates With Positive Equity Flows, Be Tactical During Tightening Cycle (Favors Financials and Technology), Sees Supply/Demand Imbalances In Publicly Traded Credit

Thomas Lee, JP Morgan's Chief US Equity Strategist was on Bloomberg TV on 3/22/2010. I quoted below what he said about equities. He also thinks there are supply/demand imbalances in the publicly traded securitized credit market (demand > supply), there are opportunities in bankruptcy plays (auto parts suppliers) and believes health care legislation will create jobs. He said be "tactical on policy normalization" but financials (net interest margin) and technology usually outperform during the beginning of a tightening cycle. If you followed his advice since June 17, 2009 you would've made a lot of money. For previous posts featuring Thomas Lee click here.

Niall Ferguson Testifies On China Exchange Rate Policy, Text

Harvard's Niall Ferguson testifed before the Committee on Ways & Means committee on China's exchange rate policy.  Below is part of the testimony.  Find the full testimony PDF here (waysandmeans.house.gov).  He basically says be careful of potential market implications if protectionism runs amok.  I will embed the video when it is available.

Chicago Students Condemn Board of Education On Cafeteria Food

"When you go to school, you expect a decent meal but instead you get slop," she said. (link)
Students to Board of Ed: Stop serving us slop - ChicagoBreaking, 3/24
Chicago school officials to ditch doughnuts, Pop-Tarts - ChicagoBreaking, 3/23
Chicago high schoolers to demand better food at board meeting - ChicagoBreaking, 3/23

Also 4-day school week?  Mayor Daley says it's a move in the wrong direction..
Daley turns thumbs-down on four-day school week - ChicagoTribune, 3/23

David Tice: Secular Bear Market Won't Bottom Until Market Reaches Book Value, Sees S&P At 400 and Unemployment 15%, Likes Gold

With the market nearing 11,000 I have to put David Tice up. David Tice of Federated Investor's Prudent Bear Fund thinks the S&P will hit 400 and unemployment will hit 15%.  He recommends being short "negatively correlated vehicles" to stocks, real estate, your paycheck and bonus, and buying gold and precious metals. He says look at what happened to Japan.
"We have not yet worked off the excesses, we still have vast excesses and imbalances that still have to be worked off and this secular bear market will not bottom until we get back below book value or near that".
Bloomberg.com Video Link

Reading: MOVE Index, CBOE IPO, Africa Cyber Threat, Euro to $1.20 (FX Concepts)

The MOVE Index (bond market VIX) And Outlying Events - TheMacroTrader
CBOE Filing $300 Million IPO - CNN Money
February new home sales drop 2.2 percent to new low - AP
February Existing Home Sales Data, Shadow Inventories etc. - Previous Post
Bank of America cutting more loan balances - WSJ
Ackman’s Greatest Short Ever Told Began With Handshake Refused - Bloomberg
Why #Africa is the world's biggest cyber threat - Foreign Policy
Lehman Head Warns of More Big Bank Failures - Handelsblatt (translated by CreditWritedowns)
John Taylor (Largest Currency Hedge Fund) Sees Euro Dropping To $1.20 By August - Zero Hedge
Goldman gets stopped out of EUR/USD at 1.34!! - Zero Hedge
GoDaddy.com plans to stop registering domain names in China - Washington Post

February Existing Home Sales -.6%, 33-Month Shadow Inventory, 8.6 Months On Market and Zillow Home Value Index Link (Charts/Tables from NAR)

Existing home sales were down 0.6% in February (preliminary) over January to 5,020,000 units with 8.6 months of inventory. Existing home sales are up 7% over last year. The existing home sales price was up $200 over January to $165,100 but still down 1.8% over last year. First is a piece of the news release and table with US existing home sales, regional data, inventories and months of supply on the market. I charted out US existing home sales and monthly inventories at the bottom and gave you information from S&P on shadow inventory that could put pressure on the housing market going forward. I just added info on the Zillow Home Value Index at the bottom which shows a peak on the month-over-month chart that started last November.
"Washington, March 23, 2010

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said widespread winter storms in February may mask underlying demand. “Some closings were simply postponed by winter storms, but buyers couldn’t get out to look at homes in some areas and that should negatively impact near-term contract activity,” he said.

“Although sales have been higher than year-ago levels for eight straight months and home prices are much more stable compared to the past few years, the housing recovery is fragile at the moment.”

Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 9.5 percent to 3.59 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.6-month supply2 at the current sales pace, up from a 7.8-month supply in January. Raw unsold inventory is 5.5 percent below a year ago.

“The key test for a durable recovery comes in the next few months as the tax credit deadline approaches,” Yun said. “If we see a surge in home buying comparable to last fall in the months leading up to the original tax credit deadline, then enough inventory should be absorbed to ensure a broad home price stabilization.”

Geithner Testifies Before Congress On Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Reform (CSPAN Video, Written Testimony)

More politics for you to enjoy. This time Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testified before the House Financial Services Committee on reforming the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). 

"March 23, 2010

Secretary Timothy F. Geithner
Written Testimony
House Committee on Financial Services


Promoting and maintaining stability in the housing market is critical to achieving economic recovery and sustainable long term growth. The Administration's broad housing policies, including support for the ongoing functions of the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, together with Treasury's and the Federal Reserve's purchases of mortgage-backed securities, have been crucial to restoring stability in the housing market and to maintaining the availability of mortgage credit. Private capital has not yet returned to provide the amount of funding that would be needed to allow families to get a mortgage to buy a new home or to sensibly refinance the house they already live in. Without the continued activity of the GSEs and the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) in the current environment, mortgage rates would be higher and homeowners would have a significantly harder time obtaining credit. While conservatorship, undertaken by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) during the Bush Administration, pursuant to Congressional authorization under the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA), and continued under the Obama Administration, was necessary, together we must begin the process of fundamental reassessment and reform.

Obama Signs Health Care Bill At Ceremony - Video, Full Bill Link H.R.3590

Historic day for health care. Here is a video of Obama signing the bill from CSPAN.org. Obama and Biden give a speech before the bill is signed.
"President Obama spoke about the passage of the health care bill before signing it into law. Members of the audience included health care advocates, members of Congress, medical professionals, family members of Senator Ted Kennedy, and Americans who had written to the president about their challenges with health insurance." (CSPAN.org)

Wondering where the full bill is? Here's a link to the full text of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (H.R. 3590) at the Government Printing Office (text/pdf). There is also information on the health care bill at OpenCongress and the Library of Congress. Here is a summary of the health care bill at the Library of Congress.

Reading: January CRE Prices Up 1%, China Condemns Google, Hellenic Post Bank Owns Greek CDS, E&Y Responds To Lehman Bankruptcy Examiner's Report 3/22/2010 - 3/23/2010

The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index climbed 1% in January - Calculated Risk
Store closings to put pressure on malls - Calculated Risk
Institutional investors against private equity fees - Naked Capitalism
China to Post $8 Billion Trade Deficit in March: Wen - ABC News
Cablevision buying blog network Gothamist - Tech Dirt
Monarch Insurance offers medical marijuana program in California, Hawaii - Insurance Journal
Biggest Greek CDS speculator is state-owned Hellenic Post Bank (TT) - Zero Hedge
Ernst & Young responds to the Lehman Bankruptcy Examiner's report, defends position - re: The Auditors
China condemns decision by Google to lift censorship - BBC News
Official update from the Google blog:  A new approach to China: an update - Google
Strange Similarities Between 2007 Peak and Current Rally High - Afraid to Trade

Has 1-Month LIBOR Bottomed? Fed Discount Rate Update ($LIBOR, Primary Credit Rate)

Interesting movement going on in 1-month rate land. LIBOR is the London Interbank Offered Rate and is a "trimmed average of inter-bank deposit rates offered by designated contributor banks, for maturities ranging from overnight to one year" (Wikipedia). LIBOR rates are also used to price or adjust variable-rates when economic conditions change. On January 11, 2010 I thought there had to be a spike at some point, look at the chart. 1-Month LIBOR stood at 0.233 on 1/11/2010 and it just spiked to 0.2472 a few days ago.

Renminbi/USD ETN CNY Was Up 5% Today, Revaluation Speculation?

Check out $CNY, the MarketVectors ETN for the Chinese Renminbi/US Dollar pair (Yuan/USD). Hat tip @fiateconomics, @theback9 on Twitter for pointing this out. As you know the US Government is trying to get the Chinese Government to appreciate their currency against the US Dollar to stimulate trade.
"March 22 (Bloomberg) -- People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said his government and the U.S. may engage in bilateral discussions about currency values, adding that too much political “noise” isn’t “helpful.”" [Bloomberg].

"Zhou, head of the People's Bank of China, said while U.S. policy makers are under pressure to lower unemployment, China also faces a "tremendous task to create jobs." [Reuters]"

Like Jim Rogers said in the recent BNN interview:  "(The Chinese) know that they can never be a great international economy unless their currency floats. You can't have a blocked currency and be a major player on the world stage, they know that" (Rogers interview, usd/cny chart).  So is China nearing a currency move?  Someone thinks so (unless it was a f--- up!).  Look at the crazy move in $CNY today on higher than average volume.  I don't see any options on it.

$CNY / Market Vectors - Renminibi/USD ETN (courtesy of stockcharts.com)

$CNY  - 1 Minute Chart (courtesy of freestockcharts.com)

CLSA's Chris Wood Is Overweight Asia, China, Collapse of US Dollar Standard (CNBC, 3/1/2010)

Before this gets too old, Chris Wood of CLSA's Greed and Fear newsletter and "the man who predicted the subprime crisis (Telegraph, 9/2007)", said on CNBC to be overweight Asian equities, China stocks and gold, and sees the collapse of the US Dollar standard.  This CNBC video was on 3/1/2010 from the CLSA Asia-USA Forum. He sees the pullback in China stocks as a buying opportunity. Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos probably thinks you sell the rally after the pullback.
"My view is firmly that investors should remain overweight Asian equities with a focus on China and Indian stocks. In my view the over heating concerns in China we see this year, the incremental tightening we see in China represents a massive buying opportunity to buy more China stocks. The key point to understand is that the inflationary pressures we see in Asia this year are healthy, they reflect the fact that Asia has growth, it has income growth. Whereas in the Western World we still have this deflationary situation".

E-Mini S&P Future Action After Health Care Passes, Bart Stupak Speaks and Crowd Goes Wild [Videos, ES Live Charts]

Here are two videos I recorded after the health care vote passed.  I included a streaming E-mini S&P June Future chart with Bart Stupak speaking on CSPAN.org.  The crowd goes crazy.  The future was down 0.7% once the bill passed and rallied back to -0.54% the last time I checked.  The second video is during the reconciliation vote.

I zoomed out on the chart and saw that the S&P June Future broke below a rising channel and could test new support at 1141.67 (from the January highs that were just broken).  In the second video you can see a downtrend on the 2-day/5-minute chart.  The charts I used in the videos are from Optionsxpress.

Jim Rogers Talks Chinese Yuan Peg, Urban Real Estate Bubbles, Trade Wars, USD/CNY Chart (BNN, 3/18/2010)

Summary of what he said about China's currency peg and potential trade wars between China/US on the Business News Network out of Canada (BNN.ca video link).  Rogers called the bottom in the US Dollar Index late last year at 75 (link), it's now at 80.75.

    Bart Stupak Voting Yes On Health Care Bill, Could Pass Tonight [Video]

    With the big health care vote tonight, I just read that Obama clinched Bart Stupak's (Michigan) health care vote today by signing an executive order banning federal funding of abortions. This could seal the deal. Futures will be interesting to watch tonight. Here is Bart Stupak today on Associated Press video.

    India Raises Rates, 2010 LBO Boom?, $FXI P&F Chart Analysis, Dick Bove On Citigroup, Housing, China Development Forum, Advanta Bankruptcy....

    India's Central Bank could raise rates next month (BNP Paribas SA, Standard Chartered) - Bloomberg
    LBO Boom Coming in 2010? Analysis of debt/CDS plays and LBO screener - Zero Hedge
    Dick Bove: Citi Shares to hit $8.50 in next few years - Tech Ticker Video
    Dick Bove: Housing to see a 10-15% dip - Tech Ticker Video
    Chinese Food for Thought ($FXI), point & figure chart - Charles Amadeus
    China Development Forum 2010 - Cdrf.org.cn
    China Accuses U.S. of Politicizing Yuan as Trade Surplus Sinks - Bloomberg
    Commerce Minister Chen Deming: China may report trade deficit in March - AP
    Advanta bankruptcy filing is a blow to small business lending - CNN Money
    CDS 101 by Goldman Sachs (Learn about credit default swaps) - Goldman Sachs PDF
    China: Google's exit to hit bloggers, activists - One India
    Chinese-made train heads to Mumbai - CCTV Video