Marc Faber Mises Circle Speech, When is the Next AIG to Fall? (5/22/2010)

Marc Faber gave an interesting speech at the Mises Circle ("Austrian Economics and the Financial Markets") in Manhattan, New York on May 22, 2010. He gave potential consequences of prolonged zero percent interest rate policies (ZIRP) and printing money. Another bubble is brewing folks, watch the video. He shows a powerpoint with historical charts during his speech. Marc Faber called the failed $115 $SPY breakout in the beginning of March. He runs the Gloom Boom Doom report, find recent posts on Marc Faber w/ embedded media appearances here. Long live Austrian Economics, reflexivity and technical analysis. That's all you need folks!

BP’s Continued Existence Seen Coming Under Threat as Gulf Oil Spill Continues - Guest Post

Guest post by OilPrice.com

BP’s Continued Existence Seen Coming Under Threat as Gulf Oil Spill Continues

The continued failure of BP’s efforts to stop the Gulf oil spill and mounting political pressure are putting the very future of the British-based oil giant in question.

$SPY Must Hold Shelf of Death, Under 200DMA, $107.75 -2.67%

$SPY (SPDRS S&P ETF) is trading on a wobbly shelf under the 200DMA. Let the force be with you $SPY.  Are we still in Wave 3?

$SPY [courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com]

Tom Lee (JP Morgan): AAII Survey Bearish Sentiment = Capitulation, Watching Credit Spreads and Risk Assets for Confirmation

On June 1 on Bloomberg TV, Thomas Lee, JP Morgan's Chief US Equity Strategist, said he was fading the net-bearish sentiment in the AAII Sentiment Survey (bull/bear ratio).  He thinks it shows bearish capitulation.  Tom also mentioned that credit spreads have widened a bit (pricing of risk) and equities need confirmation from other risk assets (high yield) in order to move higher.  He still thinks we're in a normal bull market correction but remains a selective "slow buyer".  Interesting, watch the video below.  The market better get above the 200DMA.  Lee made correct calls throughout 2009.  I also threw up a snapshot of the AAII Sentiment chart.

Mark Zuckerberg at D8: Things Will Be Designed More Around People and Will Be Powerful Direction [Facebook]

Below is a video of Mark Zuckerberg (Founder and CEO of Facebook) speaking at the AllThingsDigital D8 conference. He gets into Facebook privacy settings, social plugins, the news feed backlash and future predictions. I cooked up a Zuck quote and embedded a video clip, courtesy of AllthingsD.
"My prediction would be that a few years from now we'll look back and wonder why there was ever this time when all these websites and applications, whether they're mobile applications or websites, weren't personalized in some way, whether it's through social plug-ins or connect or instant personalization, or whatever programs other companies come out with but I just think that the world is moving in this direction where things are going to be designed more around people and I think it's going to be a real powerful direction."

You Down With UUP? Dollar and Gold Decoupled Today, GLD at Ascending Triangle Inflection Point!

Continued from my previous post Who Decouples Next with a bunch of charts. Look at the GLD/UUP relationship widen today. UUP is preparing for a ceiling breakout (or failure) in a mini ascending triangle and GLD just took out the 20 day moving average and mini uptrend on the 30 minute chart. GLD is trying mercifully to break above the December high and through the year long ascending triangle. If the Australian Dollar wants to take down Gold, so be it.  These are near term technical indicators but could be part of a major confirmation signal soon to come.  Charts below are courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com.

CMBS, CRE Losses "Worst Coming", Municipal Budget Shortfalls, Goldman S&P Earnings Revision [links]

Japan Deflation vs. U.S Today (Nasdaq v. Nikkei Charts)

Interesting post at Business Insider: If We're Japan, Then The NASDAQ Is Going To 800 In Three Years. Click the chart links below.

Who Decouples Next? (GLD, UUP, SPY, AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, FXI)

I want to know what you internet folk think of this.  In the beginning of May, $SPY (S&P ETF), AUD/JPY (Australian Dollar/Yen) and AUD/USD decoupled from $UUP (US Dollar Index ETF) and $GLD to the downside.  Yield plays and carry trades unwound a bit at that time.  The Australian Dollar rose in tandem with Gold during the reflation trade last year but decoupled during the 2008 carry trade massacre (financial crisis).  Australia is the second biggest producer of gold (mining weekly).  The Euro was already moving lower in late '09 on Greek/Eurozone sovereign debt fears and China ($SSEC, $FXI) was making lower highs.  Now it appears that AUD/JPY, AUD/USD and $SPY are testing downtrend resistance and UUP is being squeezed at an inflection point.

BP Stock -15%, CDS Spikes to 167bps, ATP Notes Down $300M, ATPG -18% and APC -19.5% [Stock Charts]

This BP "black swan" event in the Gulf (live BP oil cam) is not only killing the environment, but losing investors big money.  Except those long credit default swaps, short stock or long puts. BP's stock is down about 15% today after the "top kill" operation failed (bp.com).  They now have to drill relief wells which could take 2 months to complete (msnbc).  London investment bank Arbuthnot Securities thinks "BP Plc may break up or become a takeover target" (bloomberg).  The cost of the spill so far is $1 billion for $BP (npr).

BP stock lost 15% today and 40% since mid-April.  Andarko Petroleum lost 19.55% today and 45% since mid-April and ATP Oil & Gas lost 18% and 60% respectively (look at the comparison chart).

SPY and S&P 500 Future in Descending Channel, Testing 200DMA (Charts)

$SPY (SPDRS S&P 500 ETF) and the S&P June future are trading in a steep descending channel, just below the 200 day moving average. The falling 20 day moving average could bump heads with traders soon (light blue line on second chart). High frequency traders need to team up and make things happen. Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com and Optionsxpress.