Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital gave a great speech at the Las Vegas Mortgage Bankers Association conference in November 2006. Everything he warned about came true with regards to the recession, housing crash and mortgage crash (financial crisis). The spike in Treasury Yields and dump in the US Dollar have yet to occur. Actually the US Dollar Index went from 85 in November 2006 to 70 in 2008, but spiked when the financial crisis hit and covered the carry trade. Treasury yields will be something to watch as the tug of war between deflation and reflation continues. Watch out for quantitative easing part two.
Gary Shilling thinks the 30-Year Treasury Bond will yield 3% on deflation (video), however, Michael Pento (now at Euro Pacific Capital) thinks a sovereign debt crisis is 3 years away. The US Dollar Index is very close to testing its200 day moving average. $UUP (US Dollar Index Bullish ETF) tested it today and bounced. Schiff was recently on Tech Ticker saying interest rates should be higher, the US Dollar is a "bottomless pit", real estate prices are still too high and the Dow will keep falling in real terms (priced in gold). See the videos below.
Harvard's Niall Ferguson recently told Bloomberg that the US Treasury bond vigilantes will eventually hit the United States (video) and the Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, thinks Government deficits could be the next "black swan" event (BusinessWeek). It seems like higher Treasury yields are inevitable and hopefully as a result of real inflationary growth. The question is will the 30-Year Treasury Yield hit 3% before 10%?