Saturday, August 7, 2010
David Tice, Federated Investor's chief portfolio strategist for "bear markets" (his Prudent Bear Fund got bought out), was on Bloomberg TV on July 30 and believes a double dip recession is "in the cards". The Prudent Bear Fund hedges long exposure by shorting stocks. BEARX is back at summer 2008 levels, pre-financial crisis. The 50 day moving average is at 5.34 and the 200 day is at 5.36, so a long term directional decision is near for this mutual fund (trend reversal vs. continuation). Here's a summary of what D. Tice said plus chart.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Distressed Volatility was out of commission for the past few days as it was relocating blog offices on very short notice. To re-up on financial news, here's a link fest for 8/5/2010 - 8/6/2010 and charts of the Wheat Future (CBOT:W) and DJ UBS Wheat Subindex, which had huge upside moves on Russia's export ban. I think you're about to witness a golden-cross in the DJ Wheat Subindex chart (50 day moving average crossing the 200 day moving average to the upside). It already occurred in the rolling wheat future. Wheat tumbled today on overbought conditions, look at the relative strength index. Higher bread and cereal prices coming?
Sunday, August 1, 2010
David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates was on Tech Ticker last week giving his thoughts on the market and economy. He thinks there's now a 67% chance of a double dip recession based on the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (Economic Cycle Research Institute). He still likes gold (3,000 is his conservative target), thinks the S&P should be around 900 and believes "cash is trash".
"His prediction is based on the sharp decline in the ECRI's weekly leading index, where the growth rate has fallen for 7 consecutive weeks." (Tech Ticker article with video)